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Aim: The Baltic Sea forms a unique regional sea with its salinity gradient ranging from marine to nearly freshwater conditions. It is one of the most environmentally impacted brackish seas worldwide, and the low biodiversity makes it particularly sensitive to anthropogenic pressures including climate change. We applied a novel combination of models to predict the fate of one of the dominant foundation species in the Baltic Sea, the bladder wrack Fucus vesiculosus. Location:The Baltic Sea. Methods:We used a species distribution model to predict climate change-induced displacement of F. vesiculosus and combined these projections with a biophysical model of dispersal and connectivity to explore whether the dispersal rate of locally adapted genotypes may match estimated climate velocities to recolonize the receding salinity gradient. In addition, we used a population dynamic model to assess possible effects of habitat fragmentation. Results:The species distribution model showed that the habitat of F. vesiculosus is expected to dramatically shrink, mainly caused by the predicted reduction of salinity.In addition, the dispersal rate of locally adapted genotypes may not keep pace with estimated climate velocities rendering the recolonization of the receding salinity gradient more difficult. A simplistic model of population dynamics also indicated that the risk of local extinction may increase due to future habitat fragmentation. Main conclusions:Results point to a significant risk of locally adapted genotypes being unable to shift their ranges sufficiently fast considering the restricted dispersal and long generation time. The worst scenario is that F. vesiculosus may disappear from large parts of the Baltic Sea before the end of this century with large effects on the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We finally discuss how to reduce this risk through conservation actions, including assisted colonization and assisted evolution. K E Y W O R D SBaltic Sea, bladder wrack, climate change, connectivity, dispersal, fragmentation, local adaptation, range shift, salinity, species distribution modelThis is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

In the Helsinki Commission Red List project 2009-2012, taxonomic and distributional data of benthic (macro) invertebrates were compiled by the present authors in a comprehensive checklist of the Baltic Sea fauna. Based on the most recent and comprehensive data, this paper presents the diversity patterns observed among benthic invertebrates in the Baltic Sea. As expected, the total number of species per sub-region generally declined along the salinity gradient from the Danish Straits to the northern Baltic Sea. This relationship is well known from the Baltic Sea and has resulted in a general assumption of an exponentially positive relationship between species richness and salinity for marine species, and a negative relationship for freshwater species. In 1934, Remane produced a diagram to describe the hypothetical distribution of benthic invertebrate diversity along a marine-freshwater salinity gradient. Our results clearly indicated the validity of this theory for the macrozoobenthic diversity pattern within the Baltic Sea. Categorisation of sub-regions according to species composition showed both separation and grouping of some sub-regions and a strong alignment of similarity patterns of zoobenthic species composition along the salinity gradient.

Large-scale climate changes influence the geographic distribution of biodiversity. Many taxa have been reported to extend or reduce their geographic range, move poleward or displace other species. However, for closely related species that can hybridize in the natural environment, displacement is not the only effect of changes of environmental variables. Another option is subtler, hidden expansion, which can be found using genetic methods only. The marine blue mussels Mytilus are known to change their geographic distribution despite being sessile animals. In addition to natural dissemination at larval phase—enhanced by intentional or accidental introductions and rafting—they can spread through hybridization and introgression with local congeners, which can create mixed populations sustaining in environmental conditions that are marginal for pure taxa. The Mytilus species have a wide distribution in coastal regions of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigated the inter-regional genetic differentiation of the Mytilus species complex at 53 locations in the North Atlantic and adjacent Arctic waters and linked this genetic variability to key local environmental drivers. Of seventy-nine candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), all samples were successfully genotyped with a subset of 54 SNPs. There was a clear interregional separation of Mytilus species. However, all three Mytilus species hybridized in the contact area and created hybrid zones with mixed populations. Boosted regression trees (BRT) models showed that inter-regional variability was important in many allele models but did not prevail over variability in local environmental factors. Local environmental variables described over 40% of variability in about 30% of the allele frequencies of Mytilus spp. For the 30% of alleles, variability in their frequencies was only weakly coupled with local environmental conditions. For most studied alleles the linkages between environmental drivers and the genetic variability of Mytilus spp. were random in respect to “coding” and “non-coding” regions. An analysis of the subset of data involving functional genes only showed that two SNPs at Hsp70 and ATPase genes correlated with environmental variables. Total predictive ability of the highest performing models (r2 between 0.550 and 0.801) were for alleles that discriminated most effectively M. trossulus from M. edulis and M. galloprovincialis, whereas the best performing allele model (BM101A) did the best at discriminating M. galloprovincialis from M. edulis and M. trossulus. Among the local environmental variables, salinity, water temperature, ice cover and chlorophyll a concentration were by far the greatest predictors, but their predictive performance varied among different allele models. In most cases changes in the allele frequencies along these environmental gradients were abrupt and occurred at a very narrow range of environmental variables. In general, regions of change in allele frequencies for M. trossulus occurred at 8–11 psu, 0–10 °C, 60%–70% of ice cover and 0–2 mg m−3 of chlorophyll a, M. edulis at 8–11 and 30–35 psu, 10–14 °C and 60%–70% of ice cover and for M. galloprovincialis at 30–35 psu, 14–20 °C.

Mesograzers are known to reduce the biomass of their host plant and modify the structure of the whole macrophyte community in many ecosystems. Thus, the introduction of an efficient mesograzer may destabilize macrophyte community and also affect the native grazers. We estimated how large proportion of macrophyte production are consumed by the alien gammarid G. tigrinus and the native gammarid G. salinus in the species poor ecosystem of the northern Baltic Sea. We analysed whether G. tigrinus consumes different diet as the native G. salinus and whether the effect of G. tigrinus on the survival of the native G. salinus is macrophyte species specific. Grazing experiments showed that there was a clear difference in the grazing rates of gammarids among the studied macrophyte species in summer and autumn but not in spring. The grazing rates were significantly higher in the prevailing macrophyte Pilayella littoralis as compared to other macrophytes. The grazing was inversely related to the diurnal net photosynthetic values of macrophytes. The gammarid amphipods potentially removed only a minor part of plant primary production except for summer and autumn when grazing of a few perennial species exceeded macrophyte production. Macrophyte species and presence of G. salinus had no effect on the survival of G. tigrinus. The presence of G. tigrinus, however, reduced the survival of the native gammarids within P. littoralis in summer. To conclude it is likely that both native and alien gammarid amphipods do not exert significant pressure on the macroalgal communities in the northern Baltic Sea. Competitive interactions between G. tigrinus and G. salinus within the prevailing macrophyte P. littoralis is the likely explanation of the decline of the native gammarid amphipods after the establishment of G. tigrinus in the northern Baltic Sea.

The aim of this paper is to assess the potential oil spill related ecological risk for the southern Gulf of Finland coastal waters using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology. The BBN prior probabilities were obtained from knowledge on spatial variability in the sensitivity of coastal ecosystem of the southern Gulf of Finland. The sensitivity data represented the three different ecosystem elements: the EU Habitat Directive Annex 1 habitats and associated habitat forming species, the EU Birds Directive Annex 1 birds and seals. Information on bird, seal and habitat layers were integrated into a single measure of ecosystem sensitivity. For this purpose the maximum value of different layers was calculated in each raster cell. The scenario modelling results showed that the western Gulf of Finland could be considered as an area of the highest ecological risk for the all seasons.

Ecosystems are under pressure from multiple human disturbances whose impact may vary depending on environmental context. We experimentally evaluated variation in the separate and combined effects of the loss of a key functional group (canopy algae) and physical disturbance on rocky shore ecosystems at nine locations across Europe. Multivariate community structure was initially affected (during the first three to six months) at six locations but after 18 months, effects were apparent at only three. Loss of canopy caused increases in cover of non-canopy algae in the three locations in southern Europe and decreases in some northern locations. Measures of ecosystem functioning (community respiration, gross primary productivity, net primary productivity) were affected by loss of canopy at five of the six locations for which data were available. Short-term effects on community respiration were widespread, but effects were rare after 18 months. Functional changes corresponded with changes in community structure and/or species richness at most locations and times sampled, but no single aspect of biodiversity was an effective predictor of longer-term functional changes. Most ecosystems studied were able to compensate in functional terms for impacts caused by indiscriminate physical disturbance. The only consistent effect of disturbance was to increase cover of non-canopy species. Loss of canopy algae temporarily reduced community resistance to disturbance at only two locations and at two locations actually increased resistance. Resistance to disturbance-induced changes in gross primary productivity was reduced by loss of canopy algae at four locations. Location-specific variation in the effects of the same stressors argues for flexible frameworks for the management of marine environments. These results also highlight the need to analyse how species loss and other stressors combine and interact in different environmental contexts.