Bayesian inference for predicting potential oil spill related ecological risk

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess the potential oil spill related ecological risk for the southern Gulf of Finland coastal waters using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology. The BBN prior probabilities were obtained from knowledge on spatial variability in the sensitivity of coastal ecosystem of the southern Gulf of Finland. The sensitivity data represented the three different ecosystem elements: the EU Habitat Directive Annex 1 habitats and associated habitat forming species, the EU Birds Directive Annex 1 birds and seals. Information on bird, seal and habitat layers were integrated into a single measure of ecosystem sensitivity. For this purpose the maximum value of different layers was calculated in each raster cell. The scenario modelling results showed that the western Gulf of Finland could be considered as an area of the highest ecological risk for the all seasons.

Numerical Modeling of Marine Circulation, Pollution Assessment and Optimal Ship Routes

“…Practical implementation of the results of the sensitivity function calculations enables development of solutions to better integrate the results of the growing body of research focused on the maritime traffic risk modeling [38] and the maritime accidents related to the ecological risk assessment [35]. Multiplication of the sensitivity function by the function describing probability of maritime traffic accidents related to marine environment pollution allows construction of a "risk map" with respect to potential pollution of the Tallinn-Helsinki protected area.…”

“…Note that in specific practical problems the probability density f (x) may be calculated on the base of data related to probabilities of dangerous events in the sea (see, e.g., [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]). …”

Oil accident response simulation: allocation of potential places of refuge

“…In each raster cell the maximum value of different layers is calculated to give the final assessment of ecosystem sensitivity by coastal water bodies and the seasons (Figure 1 Ecological sensitivities by coastal water bodies of the southern Gulf of Finland (1 -6) and seasons (spring/autumn, summer and winter). Sensitivity scale according to sensitivity criteria applied: (0) -no sensitivity, (0-0.25) -low sensitivity, (0.26-0.50) -medium sensitivity, (0.51-0.75) -high sensitivity, and (0.76-1.00) -very high sensitivity [7].…”

Environmental impact assessment based on a potential oil spill scenario: Eastern Black Sea coastal zone, Turkey

“…Net Environmental Benefit Analysis (NEBA) is defined as a method to determine the most appropriate response option(s) in order to minimize the overall environmental impact of an oil spill [8,9] and this method is often used for oil spill related risk assessment [10,11]. Immediately after notification of a pollution incident at sea, the NEBA is to be performed, and a quick decision is to be taken on the most appropriate response option(s).…”