Abstract. Many studies have shown plant species' dispersal distances to be strongly related to life-history traits, but how well different traits can predict dispersal distances is not yet known. We used cross-validation techniques and a global data set (576 plant species) to measure the predictive power of simple plant traits to estimate species' maximum dispersal distances. Including dispersal syndrome (wind, animal, ant, ballistic, and no special syndrome), growth form (tree, shrub, herb), seed mass, seed release height, and terminal velocity in different combinations as explanatory variables we constructed models to explain variation in measured maximum dispersal distances and evaluated their power to predict maximum dispersal distances. Predictions are more accurate, but also limited to a particular set of species, if data on more specific traits, such as terminal velocity, are available. The best model (R 2 ¼ 0.60) included dispersal syndrome, growth form, and terminal velocity as fixed effects. Reasonable predictions of maximum dispersal distance (R 2 ¼ 0.53) are also possible when using only the simplest and most commonly measured traits; dispersal syndrome and growth form together with species taxonomy data. We provide a function (dispeRsal) to be run in the software package R. This enables researchers to estimate maximum dispersal distances with confidence intervals for plant species using measured traits as predictors. Easily obtainable trait data, such as dispersal syndrome (inferred from seed morphology) and growth form, enable predictions to be made for a large number of species.
The concept of a pace-of-life syndrome describes inter- and intraspecific variation in several life-history traits along a slow-to-fast pace-of-life continuum, with long lifespans, low reproductive and metabolic rates, and elevated somatic defences at the slow end of the continuum and the opposite traits at the fast end. Pace-of-life can vary in relation to local environmental conditions (e.g. latitude, altitude), and here we propose that this variation may also occur along an anthropogenically modified environmental gradient. Based on a body of literature supporting the idea that city birds have longer lifespans, we predict that urban birds have a slower pace-of-life compared to rural birds and thus invest more in self maintenance and less in annual reproduction. Our statistical meta-analysis of two key traits related to pace-of-life, survival and breeding investment (clutch size), indicated that urban birds generally have higher survival, but smaller clutch sizes. The latter finding (smaller clutches in urban habitats) seemed to be mainly a characteristic of smaller passerines. We also reviewed urbanization studies on other traits that can be associated with pace-of-life and are related to either reproductive investment or self-maintenance. Though sample sizes were generally too small to conduct formal meta-analyses, published literature suggests that urban birds tend to produce lower-quality sexual signals and invest more in offspring care. The latter finding is in agreement with the adult survival hypothesis, proposing that higher adult survival prospects favour investment in fewer offspring per year. According to our hypothesis, differences in age structure should arise between urban and rural populations, providing a novel alternative explanation for physiological differences and earlier breeding. We encourage more research investigating how telomere dynamics, immune defences, antioxidants and oxidative damage in different tissues vary along the urbanization gradient, and suggest that applying pace-of-life framework to studies of variation in physiological traits along the urbanization gradient might be the next direction to improve our understanding of urbanization as an evolutionary process.
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