Relative sea-level rise is resulting in the intrusion of saline waters into marshes historically dominated by fresh water. Saltwater intrusions can potentially affect resident marsh species, especially when storm-related tidal surges cause rapid changes in salinity. We examined the role of historical salinity exposure on the survival of Gambusia affinis from two locations in coastal Louisiana. At each location, we sampled fish populations from fresh, intermediate and brackish marshes. Individuals were then exposed to a salinity of 25‰ and survival time was measured. We found that fish from brackish and intermediate marshes had an increased tolerance to salinity stress relative to fish from freshwater environments. We then tested the descendents of fish from the fresh and brackish marshes, reared for two generation in fresh water, to determine if there was a genetic basis for differential survival. We found that descendents of individuals from brackish marshes showed elevated survivals relative to the descendents of fish with no historical exposure to salinity. The most reasonable mechanism to account for the differences in survival relative to historical exposure is genetic adaptation, suggesting that natural selection may play a role in the responses of resident marsh fishes to future increases in salinity.

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.

Increases in relative sea level are fragmenting the emergent vegetation of Louisiana's coastal marshes. Nekton abundance is likely impacted by salinity and whether emergent vegetation is replaced by submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) or open water. To assess these effects, we sampled nekton densities along a salinity gradient (categorized as freshwater, intermediate, and brackish marsh) in fragmented and non-fragmented areas. Total nekton density increased strongly with SAV in brackish marsh but only weakly in freshwater marsh (F 2,238 =10.03, p< 0.0001). Freshwater and intermediate marshes had higher nekton densities when fragmented than when nonfragmented; this relationship was reversed in brackish marsh (F 2,238 =8.89, p=0.0002). Fragmentation, SAV, and salinity interacted to affect the densities of Gambusia affinis, Poecilia latipinna, Cyprinodon variegates, and Lucania parva. Our results suggest that the presence of both emergent vegetation and SAV was necessary for maintaining high nekton densities, with this combination being especially important in brackish marshes.

Coastal habitats are susceptible to changes in the environment associated with alterations in salinity. A field study was conducted on natural populations of the sailfin molly Poecilia latipinna, the western mosquitofish Gambusia affinis and the least killifish Heterandria formosa collected from coastal marsh sites along a salinity gradient, to investigate the influence of salinity on body condition and reproductive life history traits. In brackish marsh sites male P. latipinna had the best body conditions, while females had similar body conditions across all 3 marsh types. Female P. latipinna had greater reproductive allotment and fecundity in brackish marshes, where this fish was most abundant. Specimens of G. affinis collected from fresh marsh sites had less favorable body condition, and females had lower reproductive allotment and fecundity than those collected from higher salinities. While G. affinis was more abundant in freshwater marshes than in higher salinity marshes, this higher abundance did not correspond with a better body condition or higher reproductive effort, suggesting that G. affinis may be stressed in freshwater. There was no difference in the conditions between (both male and female) H. formosa from fresh and intermediate marshes. Female H. formosa from fresh marshes had a similar reproductive allotment and lower fecundity than those from intermediate marshes. The 3 species exhibited different life history patterns along the salinity gradient, and some of these patterns conflicted with expectations based on species abundances. When assessing habitat quality along an environmental gradient, measures of abundance should be accompanied by more sensitive indicators of environmental stress.

The northwestern Gulf of Mexico shelf experiences one of the largest seasonal hypoxic zones in the western hemisphere. Hypoxia (dissolved oxygen, DO ≤ 2.0 mg·L-1) is most severe from May to August during the height of the Gulf shrimp fishery, but its effects on the fishery are not well known. Prior studies indicate that hypoxia alters the spatial dynamics of shrimp and other species through habitat loss and aggregation in nearby oxygenated refuge habitats. We hypothesized that hypoxia-induced changes in the distribution of shrimp also alter the spatial dynamics of the Gulf shrimp fleet. We integrated data on the geographic distribution of shrimp tows and bottom DO to evaluate the effects of hypoxia on spatial patterns in shrimping effort. Our analyses indicate that shrimping effort declines in low DO waters on both the Texas and Louisiana shelf, but that considerable effort still occurs in low DO waters off Louisiana, likely because riverine nutrients fuel both benthic production and low bottom DO in the same general regions. The response of the shrimp fleet to hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf was complex with shifts in effort inshore, offshore, westward, and eastward of the hypoxic zone, as well as to an oxygenated area between two hypoxia regimes associated with the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya River outflows. In contrast, effort on the Texas shelf mostly shifted offshore in response to low DO but also shifted inshore in some years. Spatial patterns in total shrimping effort were driven primarily by the number of shrimp tows, consistent with aggregation of the fleet outside of hypoxic waters, though tow duration also declined in low DO waters. Overall, our results demonstrate that hypoxia alters the spatial dynamics of the Gulf shrimp fishery with potential consequences for harvest interactions and the economic condition of the fishery.

Optimal foraging theory states that animals should maximize resource acquisition rates with respect to energy expenditure, which may involve alteration of strategies in response to changes in resource availability and energetic need. However, field-based studies of changes in foraging behavior at fine spatial and temporal scales are rare, particularly among species that feed on highly mobile prey across broad landscapes. To derive information on changes in foraging behavior of breeding brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) over time, we used GPS telemetry and distribution models of their dominant prey species to relate bird movements to changes in foraging habitat quality in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Over the course of each breeding season, pelican cohorts began by foraging in suboptimal habitats relative to the availability of high-quality patches, but exhibited a marked increase in foraging habitat quality over time that outpaced overall habitat improvement trends across the study site. These findings, which are consistent with adjustment of foraging patch use in response to increased energetic need, highlight the degree to which animal populations can optimize their foraging behaviors in the context of uncertain and dynamic resource availability, and provide an improved understanding of how landscape-level features can impact behavior. The efficiency with which animals acquire resources has fundamental implications for their survival and reproductive success. In turn, the demographic and evolutionary trajectories of populations are, among other factors, shaped by individual foraging outcomes, as those who maximize their energy acquisition relative to expenditure are likely to raise more offspring over their lifespans 1. Foraging efficiency is predicated on the successful location of resources, and often varies when the distribution of those resources is subject to rapid change 2-4. Moreover, animals' energetic needs vary over time, which may favor those that adjust their behaviors appropriately 5,6. The degree to which animals forage optimally has received considerable theoretical and empirical attention 7-10. However, accurately characterizing the relationship between resource distribution and foraging performance in the context of shifting energetic requirements has proven difficult in natural systems because of challenges associated with accurately characterizing each relevant process in appropriate detail. This is particularly true for animals foraging at larger (e.g., several km 2) spatial scales, which cannot be easily approximated in experimental settings 11,12. Abiotic conditions are important determinants of habitat quality, as they affect the availability of resources and are susceptible to rapid and unpredictable change in certain ecosystems 13,14. Prey resources can be highly mobile, producing resource landscapes that are dynamic over both space and time 15,16. These patterns are common in marine systems, where many top predator species feed upon small fishes that are locally abundant but have...

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