Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) below near-surface optimums in the eastern tropical seas are among the largest contiguous areas of naturally occurring hypoxia in the world oceans, and are predicted to expand and shoal with global warming. In the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), the surface mixed layer is defined by a shallow thermocline above a barrier of cold hypoxic water, where dissolved oxygen levels are £3.5 mL L )1 . This thermocline (25-50 m) constitutes a lower hypoxic habitat boundary for high oxygen demand tropical pelagic billfish and tunas (i.e., habitat compression). To evaluate similar oceanographic conditions found in the eastern tropical Atlantic (ETA), we compared vertical habitat use of 32 sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) and 47 blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) monitored with pop-up satellite archival tags in the ETA and western North Atlantic (WNA). Both species spent significantly greater proportions of their time in near-surface waters when inside the ETA than when in the WNA. We contend that the near-surface density of billfish and tunas increases as a consequence of the ETA OMZ, therefore increasing their vulnerability to overexploitation by surface gears. Because the ETA OMZ encompasses nearly all Atlantic equatorial waters, the potential impacts of overexploitation are a concern. Considering the obvious differences in catchability inside and outside the compression zones, it seems essential to standardize these catch rates separately to minimize inaccuracies in stock assessments for these species. This is especially true in light of global warming, which will likely exacerbate future compression impacts.
Hollowed, A. B., Barange, M., Beamish, R., Brander, K., Cochrane, K., Drinkwater, K., Foreman, M., Hare, J., Holt, J., Ito, S-I., Kim, S., King, J., Loeng, H., MacKenzie, B., Mueter, F., Okey, T., Peck, M. A., Radchenko, V., Rice, J., Schirripa, M., Yatsu, A., and Yamanaka, Y. 2013. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1023–1037. This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat quantity and quality; (ii) impacts of changes in production and habitat on marine fish and shellfish species including effects on the community species composition, spatial distributions, interactions, and vital rates of fish and shellfish; (iii) impacts on fisheries and their associated communities; (iv) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming in many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where relative impacts by region could be compared on a hemispheric or global level. Eight research foci were identified that will improve the projections of climate impacts on fish, fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities.
Hollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., and Schirripa, M. J. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584–1594. A framework is outlined for a unified approach to forecasting the implications of climate change on production of marine fish. The framework involves five steps: (i) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success, growth, and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations, (ii) assessment of the feasibility of downscaling implications of climate scenarios derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for regional ecosystems to select and estimate relevant environmental variables, (iii) evaluation of climate model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of study, (iv) extraction of environmental variables from climate scenarios and incorporation into projection models for fish and shellfish, and (v) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production under a changing ecosystem. This framework was applied to forecast summer sea surface temperature in the Bering Sea from 2001 to 2050. The mean summer surface temperature was predicted to increase by 2°C by 2050. The forecasting framework was also used to estimate the effects of climate change on production of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) through projected changes in cross-shelf transport of larvae in the Bering Sea. Results suggest that climate change will lead to a modest increase in the production of strong year classes of northern rock sole.
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