Relative sea-level rise is resulting in the intrusion of saline waters into marshes historically dominated by fresh water. Saltwater intrusions can potentially affect resident marsh species, especially when storm-related tidal surges cause rapid changes in salinity. We examined the role of historical salinity exposure on the survival of Gambusia affinis from two locations in coastal Louisiana. At each location, we sampled fish populations from fresh, intermediate and brackish marshes. Individuals were then exposed to a salinity of 25‰ and survival time was measured. We found that fish from brackish and intermediate marshes had an increased tolerance to salinity stress relative to fish from freshwater environments. We then tested the descendents of fish from the fresh and brackish marshes, reared for two generation in fresh water, to determine if there was a genetic basis for differential survival. We found that descendents of individuals from brackish marshes showed elevated survivals relative to the descendents of fish with no historical exposure to salinity. The most reasonable mechanism to account for the differences in survival relative to historical exposure is genetic adaptation, suggesting that natural selection may play a role in the responses of resident marsh fishes to future increases in salinity.

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.

Increases in relative sea level are fragmenting the emergent vegetation of Louisiana's coastal marshes. Nekton abundance is likely impacted by salinity and whether emergent vegetation is replaced by submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) or open water. To assess these effects, we sampled nekton densities along a salinity gradient (categorized as freshwater, intermediate, and brackish marsh) in fragmented and non-fragmented areas. Total nekton density increased strongly with SAV in brackish marsh but only weakly in freshwater marsh (F 2,238 =10.03, p< 0.0001). Freshwater and intermediate marshes had higher nekton densities when fragmented than when nonfragmented; this relationship was reversed in brackish marsh (F 2,238 =8.89, p=0.0002). Fragmentation, SAV, and salinity interacted to affect the densities of Gambusia affinis, Poecilia latipinna, Cyprinodon variegates, and Lucania parva. Our results suggest that the presence of both emergent vegetation and SAV was necessary for maintaining high nekton densities, with this combination being especially important in brackish marshes.