This study develops a projection model of future population distribution on the basis of Japan’s current depopulation trend and applies this model to scenario analyses that assume population compactification and dispersion. The model enables a description of population migration at two levels. First, municipal populations are projected using the cohort-component method, and second, the spatial distribution of populations within municipalities is projected at a 500 m grid resolution with the use of the gravity model. Based on the Japanese depopulation context and the country’s National Spatial Strategy, the compact scenario predicts the formation of medium-scale regional urban areas (population centers located across Japan) and the concentration of people on high-density population areas within municipalities. Meanwhile, the dispersed scenario predicts the formation of more but smaller regional urban areas and the dispersion of the population to low-density areas. The simulated population distribution for 2050 reveals spatial change in population density and age structure, as well as an abundance of areas that were inhabited in 2015 but will be zero population areas by 2050. Overlay analysis of future land use maps and the simulated population distribution maps can contribute toward identifying areas where natural capital such as farmland and forest plantation should be managed but where there will be significant population loss by 2050.
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Scenario analysis is recognized as a useful tool for exploring future changes in the relationships between ecosystem services (ES) and human well-being. This analysis should be carried out not only by experts but also by relevant stakeholders such as the public. In this study, we investigated the preference of Japanese people toward natural and produced capital-based ES by distributing questionnaires to the public for exploring the direction of ES utilization in the future. Respondents with diverse backgrounds living in Tokyo and Nanao city in Ishikawa prefecture answered a series of questions about the extent to which they preferred natural or produced capital-based ES. As the general tendency of the results, the preferences for ES from the natural capitals were stronger than ES from produced capital. The trends varied, depending on the attributes of the respondents. The stronger preference for natural capital-based ES was possibly a positive indication that utilizing ES from the natural capitals was significantly beneficial for human well-being. The results were informative to understand public perception on key aspects of ES utilization scenarios, including their preferences for specific types of ES.
Recently, natural capital has gained the attention of researchers and policymakers to promote sustainability. Previous studies have investigated the value of ecosystem services with respect to specific areas or species. Other studies have investigated the value of various types of ecosystem services and natural capital by integrating a number of findings using meta-analyses at the global level. Although these studies have provided information on either the global value of natural capital or the local value of specific subjects, there is little evidence on the country-specific values of natural capital in Japan, which will provide useful information for national environmental policies. We investigated the perceived values of terrestrial and marine natural capital in Japan using internet surveys and payment card methods. Data on various natural forms of capital were collected in a unified format and comparable manner. We found that some explanatory variables, such as perceived importance and visit frequency, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, are significant drivers of the willingness to pay (WTP), which maintains each aspect of natural capital. In addition, we conducted future predictions of terrestrial and marine natural capital using a scenario developed in a previous study. Our results indicate that Japan should follow a population-dispersed scenario for the sustainable management of natural capital up to 2050.
The commons concept has evolved in multiple ways after the publication of Ostrom’s seminal work in 1990, which emphasized the evolution of resource management institutions and the usefulness of self-governance. As we move into the 21st century, one of the institutional transformations is catalyzed by the emergence of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) as a techno-economic paradigm shift and the epochal creation of a new online social structure. However, there is a lack of understanding about the impact of ICT on common resource management, particularly in urban settings, that is urban commons. This study presents a systematic literature review of ICT-enabled urban commons with particular attention to its application to climate-related issues such as climate mitigation/adaptation in order to improve our collective ability to leverage ICT for building a more sustainable and resilient city. A total of 66 pieces of literature were included in our qualitative synthesis. We analyzed the geographical, categorical, and climate relevance. Subsequently, we used the coupled infrastructure system framework as a system thinking approach to dissect distinct usefulness of ICT-enabled commons in the building of relationships between resource system, resource user, infrastructure, and infrastructure provider to tackle climate-related issues. Our findings identified three key contributions of ICT to innovate climate-resilient solutions: 1) to redefine role of resource user as co-producer, co-designer, and co-monitor; 2) to enable real-time data-driven urban planning; 3) to improve resource efficiency and effectiveness. In other words, in a time of insufficient and limited public resources, the public sector can leverage the power of technology to harness public support and engage non-traditional stakeholders to make cities more sustainable and resilient while allowing policy-making to be big data-driven to tackle new urban problems that cannot be otherwise uncovered without the aid of ICT. The results provide directions to rethink the city based on collective action to diversity modes to govern common resources.
Home food production and sharing (home consumption) make up a local community-based food system that has become a custom closely tied to people’s daily life and culture across Japan. In this study, nationwide questionnaire surveys were conducted in 2015 and 2021 to investigate the status and trends of non-commercial home food consumption in Japan. We were also able to evaluate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which commenced at the beginning of 2020 in Japan. It was found that a wide variety of foods and many different species of food are part of home consumption. In addition, the amount of home production and the amount shared with close neighbors and friends via social networks is higher in agricultural areas than in urban areas. The amount of home production was slightly higher and the amount shared with others slightly lower in 2021 compared with 2015, suggesting that COVID-19 may have limited the sharing activities that also connect people. Meanwhile, the majority of respondents who were directly asked about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the survey in 2021 answered “no change”, suggesting a resilient system even under the pressures of the pandemic. Moreover, there has been an uptake in home food production and sharing amongst younger generations, men, and people living in urban areas. These customs and lifestyles are embedded in Japanese culture, helping to produce a sustainable and resilient food system. This home consumption system has the potential to contribute to various global challenges in the form of nature-based solutions which help meet the targets of the sustainable development goals, in particular a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and the promotion of health, well-being and social relations. We discuss future research challenges for a more resource-efficient, inclusive, and sustainable growth model that includes home consumption.
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