This study develops a projection model of future population distribution on the basis of Japan’s current depopulation trend and applies this model to scenario analyses that assume population compactification and dispersion. The model enables a description of population migration at two levels. First, municipal populations are projected using the cohort-component method, and second, the spatial distribution of populations within municipalities is projected at a 500 m grid resolution with the use of the gravity model. Based on the Japanese depopulation context and the country’s National Spatial Strategy, the compact scenario predicts the formation of medium-scale regional urban areas (population centers located across Japan) and the concentration of people on high-density population areas within municipalities. Meanwhile, the dispersed scenario predicts the formation of more but smaller regional urban areas and the dispersion of the population to low-density areas. The simulated population distribution for 2050 reveals spatial change in population density and age structure, as well as an abundance of areas that were inhabited in 2015 but will be zero population areas by 2050. Overlay analysis of future land use maps and the simulated population distribution maps can contribute toward identifying areas where natural capital such as farmland and forest plantation should be managed but where there will be significant population loss by 2050.
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The online version of this article (10.1007/s11625-020-00835-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Scenario analysis is recognized as a useful tool for exploring future changes in the relationships between ecosystem services (ES) and human well-being. This analysis should be carried out not only by experts but also by relevant stakeholders such as the public. In this study, we investigated the preference of Japanese people toward natural and produced capital-based ES by distributing questionnaires to the public for exploring the direction of ES utilization in the future. Respondents with diverse backgrounds living in Tokyo and Nanao city in Ishikawa prefecture answered a series of questions about the extent to which they preferred natural or produced capital-based ES. As the general tendency of the results, the preferences for ES from the natural capitals were stronger than ES from produced capital. The trends varied, depending on the attributes of the respondents. The stronger preference for natural capital-based ES was possibly a positive indication that utilizing ES from the natural capitals was significantly beneficial for human well-being. The results were informative to understand public perception on key aspects of ES utilization scenarios, including their preferences for specific types of ES.
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