Projecting population distribution under depopulation conditions in Japan: scenario analysis for future socio-ecological systems

Abstract

This study develops a projection model of future population distribution on the basis of Japan’s current depopulation trend and applies this model to scenario analyses that assume population compactification and dispersion. The model enables a description of population migration at two levels. First, municipal populations are projected using the cohort-component method, and second, the spatial distribution of populations within municipalities is projected at a 500 m grid resolution with the use of the gravity model. Based on the Japanese depopulation context and the country’s National Spatial Strategy, the compact scenario predicts the formation of medium-scale regional urban areas (population centers located across Japan) and the concentration of people on high-density population areas within municipalities. Meanwhile, the dispersed scenario predicts the formation of more but smaller regional urban areas and the dispersion of the population to low-density areas. The simulated population distribution for 2050 reveals spatial change in population density and age structure, as well as an abundance of areas that were inhabited in 2015 but will be zero population areas by 2050. Overlay analysis of future land use maps and the simulated population distribution maps can contribute toward identifying areas where natural capital such as farmland and forest plantation should be managed but where there will be significant population loss by 2050. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11625-020-00835-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Rural depopulation on agricultural technological choice in China

“…Compared with population growth trends in most developing countries, aging and population decline have become two of the most important issues in many developed countries (HoRI et al, 2021). "Unprecedented" aging is a pervasive global phenomenon, with an increasing number of countries experiencing population decline due to persistently low fertility or immigration (UNITED NATIoNS PoPULATIoN DIVISIoN, 2019).…”

Assessment of Land-Use Scenarios at a National Scale Using Intensity Analysis and Figure of Merit Components

“…All exploratory maps were obtained from the GIS-based products from the National Land Numerical Information (National Land Information Division, National and Regional Policy Bureau: http://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/, accessed on 12 March 2021). The population data were obtained from the National Population Census (Statistics Bureau of Japan: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/, accessed on 12 March 2021) and PANCES projected population data [5,6]. In addition to these variables, the empirical likelihood of change was added to each category as an explanatory variable [10].…”

“…In Japan, national-scale future scenarios (the Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) scenarios) were developed based on surveys and expert discussions with the aim of assessing the quantity of future changes in ecosystem services through 2050 [4]. Population and land-use modeling have been further conducted to translate these qualitative scenario storylines into quantitative simulations [5][6][7].…”

The Beneficial Effect of Personalized Lifestyle Intervention in Chronic Kidney Disease Follow-Up Project for National Health Insurance Specific Health Checkup: A Five-Year Community-Based Cohort Study

“…According to the world population prospects, aging and depopulation have emerged as two important issues in many developed countries. As in other developed countries, aging and small size community are increasing in Japan [6]. Mimasaka city is a small area with a population of 28,381, an aging rate is 38.9% (one in 2.6 people aged 65 or over), and with limited medical institutions, as there are only 17 internal medicine clinics and only 1 nephrology clinic.…”