In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India . Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall.We find that breaks tend to have a longer life-span than active spells. While, almost 80% of the active spells lasted 3-4 days, only 40% of the break spells were of such short duration. A small fraction (9%) of active spells and 32% of break spells lasted for a week or longer. While active events occurred almost every year, not a single break occurred in 26% of the years considered. On an average, there are 7 days of active and break events from July through August. There are no significant trends in either the days of active or break events. We have shown that there is a major difference between weak spells and long intense breaks. While weak spells are characterized by weak moist convective regimes, long intense break events have a heat trough type circulation which is similar to the circulation over the Indian subcontinent before the onset of the monsoon.The space-time evolution of the rainfall composite patterns suggests that the revival from breaks occurs primarily from northward propagations of the convective cloud zone. There are important differences between the spatial patterns of the active/break spells and those characteristic of interannual variation, particularly those associated with the link to ENSO. Hence, the interannual variation of the Indian monsoon cannot be considered as primarily arising from the interannual variation of intraseasonal variation. However, the signature over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean on intraseasonal time scales is similar to that on the interannual time scales.

[1] In this study, using 104 years (1901 -2004) of high resolution daily gridded rainfall data, variability and long-term trends of extreme rainfall events over central India have been examined. Frequency of extreme rainfall events shows significant inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in addition to a statistically significant long term trend of 6% per decade. Detailed analysis shows that inter-annual, inter-decadal and long-term trends of extreme rainfall events are modulated by the SST variations over the tropical Indian Ocean. The present study supports the hypothesis that the increasing trend of extreme rainfall events in the last five decades could be associated with the increasing trend of sea surface temperatures and surface latent heat flux over the tropical Indian Ocean. In the global warming scenario, the coherent relationship between Indian Ocean SST and extreme rainfall events suggests an increase in the risk of major floods over central India.Citation: Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, and A. K. Jaswal (2008), Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18707,

South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly.

We describe and show results from a series of field campaigns that used balloonborne instruments launched from India and Saudi Arabia during the summers 2014–17 to study the nature, formation, and impacts of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). The campaign goals were to i) characterize the optical, physical, and chemical properties of the ATAL; ii) assess its impacts on water vapor and ozone; and iii) understand the role of convection in its formation. To address these objectives, we launched 68 balloons from four locations, one in Saudi Arabia and three in India, with payload weights ranging from 1.5 to 50 kg. We measured meteorological parameters; ozone; water vapor; and aerosol backscatter, concentration, volatility, and composition in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. We found peaks in aerosol concentrations of up to 25 cm–3 for radii > 94 nm, associated with a scattering ratio at 940 nm of ∼1.9 near the cold-point tropopause. During medium-duration balloon flights near the tropopause, we collected aerosols and found, after offline ion chromatography analysis, the dominant presence of nitrate ions with a concentration of about 100 ng m–3. Deep convection was found to influence aerosol loadings 1 km above the cold-point tropopause. The Balloon Measurements of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (BATAL) project will continue for the next 3–4 years, and the results gathered will be used to formulate a future National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Indian Space Research Organisation (NASA–ISRO) airborne campaign with NASA high-altitude aircraft.

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