South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly.

The performance of the new multi-model seasonal prediction system developed in the frame work of the ENSEMBLES EU project for the seasonal forecasts of India summer monsoon variability is compared with the results from the previous EU project, DEMETER. We have considered the results of six participating ocean-atmosphere coupled models with 9 ensemble members each for the common period of 1960-2005 with May initial conditions. The ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble (MME) results show systematic biases in the representation of mean monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Indian region, which are similar to that of DEMETER. The ENSEMBLES coupled models are characterized by an excessive oceanic forcing on the atmosphere over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The skill of the seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the ENSEMBLES MME has however improved significantly compared to the DEMETER MME. Its performance in the drought years like 1972, 1974, 1982 and the excess year of 1961 was in particular better than the DEMETER MME. The ENSEMBLES MME could not capture the recent weakening of the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship resulting in a decrease in the prediction skill compared to the ''perfect model'' skill during the recent years. The ENSEMBLES MME however correctly captures the north Atlantic-Indian monsoon teleconnections, which are independent of ENSO.

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We made an effort to inspect the raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics of Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones (TCs) using ground-based disdrometer measurements from observational sites in India and Taiwan. Five TCs (2010-2013) from the Indian Ocean and six TCs (2014-2016) from the Pacific Ocean were measured using particle size and velocity disdrometers installed in south India and south Taiwan, respectively. Significant differences between the RSDs of Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean TCs are noticed. For example, a higher number of small drops is observed in Indian Ocean TCs, whereas Pacific Ocean TCs have more mid-size and large drops. RSDs of Pacific Ocean TCs have higher massweighted mean diameter and lower normalized intercept parameter than Indian Ocean TCs. RSD values quantified based on rainfall rate and precipitation types also showed similar characteristics between Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean TCs. The radar reflectivity and rainfall rate (Z-R) relations and shape and slope (μ-Λ) relations of both oceanic (Indian and Pacific) TCs are found to be distinctly different. Possible causes for the dissimilarities in RSD features between Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean TCs are due to relative differences in water vapor availability and convective activity between TCs in these two oceanic basins.