We investigate the storm impact associated with historical events in the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The study area is prone to coastal flooding due to both its geographical location and low-lying areas. Extreme events associated with tropical cyclones and Central American cold surge (CACS; locally known as Nortes) are ubiquitous in this region, and coastal development in the study area has exacerbated the erosion of the sand beach-dune system. This study aims to assess the impact on the northern coast of Yucatan associated with different types of storms and to investigate the role of the dune in its spatial variability. Nearshore hydrodynamics, associated with hurricanes (Gilbert: 14 September 1988; Isidore: 22 September 2002) and energetic Nortes (Norte A: 12 March 1993; Norte B: 25 December 2004), were computed using a numerical model. The beach and dune characteristics were extracted from a LIDAR flight with a spatial resolution of 1 m conducted in 2011. Furthermore, the extreme water levels and the spatiotemporal variability of the storm-impact regime (swash, collision, overwash, or inundation), along a 41.5 km stretch of coast, were derived using both runup parametrizations and the modeling results. On the one hand, the predominant storm impact regimes for Hurricanes Gilbert and Isidore were inundation and overwash, respectively. The flood that propagated from east to west in the northern Yucatan was due to westerly-directed hurricane tracks. On the other hand, for the Norte events, the predominant impact regimes were collision and overwash for Nortes A and B, respectively. This difference in the impact regime between Norte events can be ascribed to tidal differences. Moreover, during the passages of Nortes A and B, the flood was propagated from west to east in the northern Yucatan, consistent with cold-front paths. The results suggest that the western part of the study area presented a stronger impact regime due to the dune degradation caused by coastal infrastructure and settlements established in those areas. This work highlights the important role of sand dunes in providing natural coastal protection during Norte events.
This study applies three different methods to assess the flood risk and damage from the strongest high-pressure cold front (locally known as ‘Norte’) event in terms of the residual tide from 30 years (1979–2008) of data for Progreso, Yucatan. The most important difference between the three methods is the estimation of flood vulnerability for Progreso. The first method, proposed by Mexico’s National Center for the Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED) and used by the Mexican government is based mostly on economic asset (household goods) values and flood impacts. The second (CENAPREDv2) and third (FRI) methods are proposals for assessing risk that include 17 socioeconomic indicators. The former includes economic asset values, as is the case for CENAPRED, while the latter does not. The main results of this study show that the modeled ‘Norte’ event flooded 25% of Progreso’s city blocks, with an estimated economic flood risk of $USD 16,266 (CENAPRED) and $USD 223,779 (CENAPREDv2), and flood damage of $USD 48,848 and $USD 671,918, respectively. When calculating flood risk (FRI) and flood damage (FRI_FD) without monetary terms, the risk categories along the back-barrier behind Progreso varied spatially from ‘very low’ to ‘high’, while areas along the coastal side presented a ‘low’ and ‘very low’ risk. These categories increased for the flood damage because the exceedance probability of the flood was not considered as it was for flood risk in the three methodologies. Therefore, flood damage provides the losses caused by a given flood event without considering how probable that loss may be. In conclusion, this study proposes that the selection of the applied method depends on the main objectives and specific interests when assessing flood risk. For instance, if economic damage is the main concern, then the CENAPRED method should be used as it identifies where the larger economic impacts could occur; when a socioeconomic approach is needed then the FRI should be applied, but if both economic damage and socioeconomic aspects are needed, the CENAPREDv2 is recommended. Besides considering economic aspects, the FRI method also includes social variables that can help to map the most vulnerable population in terms of mobility, education, communication access and others. Therefore, the proposed FRI method is very relevant for disaster risk managers and other stakeholders interested in disaster risk reduction.
Debido a la posición geográfica del archipiélago de San Andrés, Providencia y Santa Catalina (SPSC), esta es la parte del territorio colombiano más expuesto a ser inundado por marea de tormenta generada por ciclones tropicales (CT). Entre los peligros asociados a los CT, las inundaciones suelen ocasionar los mayores daños. En este estudio se evalúa un escenario extremo de inundación por marea de tormenta asociada a CT para establecer las áreas susceptibles a la inundación en este archipiélago. Dada la escasez de CT históricos en este archipiélago, se generó una base de datos de CT hipotéticos, los cuales son un conjunto de eventos con una velocidad de viento constante (95.17 m/s), una velocidad de traslación constante de 5.87 m/s y un radio máximo de viento constante de 56.3 km, para trayectorias con cinco direcciones de aproximación al área de interés. Se evaluaron siete trayectorias paralelas para cada dirección, separadas por 6 km. La misma metodología fue utilizada para la isla de San Andrés, y separadamente para Providencia y Santa Catalina, se usaron diferentes eventos debido a la distancia entre ellas (90km). El modelo hidrodinámico se forzó con campos de viento y presión generados a partir de la base de datos de CT hipotéticos para determinar la marea de tormenta e inundación por CT en el archipiélago de SPSC. Los resultados obtenidos incluyen la envolvente de las envolventes individuales de la distribución espacial del espejo de agua (nivel del agua referido al nivel del terreno) de cada evento, reportando el escenario de inundación más conservador generado por marea de tormenta de CT en el archipiélago de SPSC. Las áreas propensas a inundación en la isla de San Andrés están ubicadas al Este de la misma, principalmente donde se encuentran los puertos de abrigo y en la parte Norte donde se encuentran los principales asentamientos humanos. Para la isla de Providencia estas áreas se encuentran al Este, en regiones circunvecinas al aeropuerto y al Norte, a lo largo del canal que la separa de la isla de Santa Catalina. Para esta última isla, las áreas propensas a inundación se encuentran al Sureste. Bajo este escenario de inundación el porcentaje de área afectada sería de 13.39%, 4.24%, y 4.43% para San Andrés, Providencia y Santa Catalina, respectivamente.
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