Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

Abstract

This study applies three different methods to assess the flood risk and damage from the strongest high-pressure cold front (locally known as ‘Norte’) event in terms of the residual tide from 30 years (1979–2008) of data for Progreso, Yucatan. The most important difference between the three methods is the estimation of flood vulnerability for Progreso. The first method, proposed by Mexico’s National Center for the Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED) and used by the Mexican government is based mostly on economic asset (household goods) values and flood impacts. The second (CENAPREDv2) and third (FRI) methods are proposals for assessing risk that include 17 socioeconomic indicators. The former includes economic asset values, as is the case for CENAPRED, while the latter does not. The main results of this study show that the modeled ‘Norte’ event flooded 25% of Progreso’s city blocks, with an estimated economic flood risk of $USD 16,266 (CENAPRED) and $USD 223,779 (CENAPREDv2), and flood damage of $USD 48,848 and $USD 671,918, respectively. When calculating flood risk (FRI) and flood damage (FRI_FD) without monetary terms, the risk categories along the back-barrier behind Progreso varied spatially from ‘very low’ to ‘high’, while areas along the coastal side presented a ‘low’ and ‘very low’ risk. These categories increased for the flood damage because the exceedance probability of the flood was not considered as it was for flood risk in the three methodologies. Therefore, flood damage provides the losses caused by a given flood event without considering how probable that loss may be. In conclusion, this study proposes that the selection of the applied method depends on the main objectives and specific interests when assessing flood risk. For instance, if economic damage is the main concern, then the CENAPRED method should be used as it identifies where the larger economic impacts could occur; when a socioeconomic approach is needed then the FRI should be applied, but if both economic damage and socioeconomic aspects are needed, the CENAPREDv2 is recommended. Besides considering economic aspects, the FRI method also includes social variables that can help to map the most vulnerable population in terms of mobility, education, communication access and others. Therefore, the proposed FRI method is very relevant for disaster risk managers and other stakeholders interested in disaster risk reduction.

GIS-Based Urban Flood Resilience Assessment Using Urban Flood Resilience Model: A Case Study of Peshawar City, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

“…Though there is no uniform definition of resilience yet [13,16,17,79], in terms of urban areas, it has been defined as their ability to face the adverse impacts of extreme events and having the capacity to adapt and respond to all kind of disturbances [18,19]. According to Rey et al [20], resilience is the ability of a system to resist, absorb, adapt, and recover from the adverse effects of a hazard in a timely and effective manner through the preservation and restoration of its essential structures and functions.…”

“…Though there is no uniform definition of resilience yet [12,16,17], in terms of urban areas, it has been defined as their ability to face the adverse impacts of extreme events and having the capacity to adapt and respond to all kinds of disturbances [18,19]. Likewise, Rey et al [20], have defined resilience as a system's ability to resist, absorb, adapt, and recover from the adverse effects of a hazard in a timely manner through the preservation and restoration of its essential structures and functions. It is the potential of a community or a system to withstand external pressures while maintaining enough strength to be kept all social, economic, and environmental resources unharmed [20][21][22][23][24][25].…”

“…Likewise, Rey et al [20], have defined resilience as a system's ability to resist, absorb, adapt, and recover from the adverse effects of a hazard in a timely manner through the preservation and restoration of its essential structures and functions. It is the potential of a community or a system to withstand external pressures while maintaining enough strength to be kept all social, economic, and environmental resources unharmed [20][21][22][23][24][25]. Though resilient assessment is one of the important steps of disaster risk management, there is no single set of established indicators or framework for quantifying disaster resilience [25,26], however, there is consensus within the research community that resilience is a multidimensional concept, which includes social, economic, institutional, infrastructural, natural, ecological, and community elements [27].…”

Fiscal Economic Instruments for the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources in Coastal Marine Areas of the Yucatan Peninsula

“…In addition to this, there were other problems that were similar or shared within the 3States of the Peninsula, such as rapid urbanization, destruction of wetlands (including salt marshes, sandy beaches, coral reefs, and mangroves) [75]. Erosion is present in most sandy beaches in the Peninsula, especially in Sabancuy, Campeche; Cancun, Quintana Roo; and in Progreso, Yucatan; extreme weather events cause flood risk and damage in the coastal zones of the YP [76]. Other problems were salinization and pollution of aquifers, siltation, and hindrance navigation, increasing muddiness of waters, and decreased biological productivity [77].…”

Tidal Flood Risk on Salt Farming: Evaluation of Post Events in the Northern Part of Java Using a Parametric Approach

“…Other physical conditions such as geological features, soil types, topography, and coastal slopes have less implications for salt farming vulnerability. Although several studies suggest that elevation and slope elements have a substantial impact on coastal vulnerability assessment (CVA) [109][110][111], we argue for considering other parameters in further research, such as the shoreline change range [112,113] and rates of sea-level rise, the latter being a global phenomenon that will increasingly impact agricultural activities in coastal areas throughout the world [114,115].…”