Spatiotemporal Storm Impact on the Northern Yucatan Coast during Hurricanes and Central American Cold Surge Events

Abstract

We investigate the storm impact associated with historical events in the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The study area is prone to coastal flooding due to both its geographical location and low-lying areas. Extreme events associated with tropical cyclones and Central American cold surge (CACS; locally known as Nortes) are ubiquitous in this region, and coastal development in the study area has exacerbated the erosion of the sand beach-dune system. This study aims to assess the impact on the northern coast of Yucatan associated with different types of storms and to investigate the role of the dune in its spatial variability. Nearshore hydrodynamics, associated with hurricanes (Gilbert: 14 September 1988; Isidore: 22 September 2002) and energetic Nortes (Norte A: 12 March 1993; Norte B: 25 December 2004), were computed using a numerical model. The beach and dune characteristics were extracted from a LIDAR flight with a spatial resolution of 1 m conducted in 2011. Furthermore, the extreme water levels and the spatiotemporal variability of the storm-impact regime (swash, collision, overwash, or inundation), along a 41.5 km stretch of coast, were derived using both runup parametrizations and the modeling results. On the one hand, the predominant storm impact regimes for Hurricanes Gilbert and Isidore were inundation and overwash, respectively. The flood that propagated from east to west in the northern Yucatan was due to westerly-directed hurricane tracks. On the other hand, for the Norte events, the predominant impact regimes were collision and overwash for Nortes A and B, respectively. This difference in the impact regime between Norte events can be ascribed to tidal differences. Moreover, during the passages of Nortes A and B, the flood was propagated from west to east in the northern Yucatan, consistent with cold-front paths. The results suggest that the western part of the study area presented a stronger impact regime due to the dune degradation caused by coastal infrastructure and settlements established in those areas. This work highlights the important role of sand dunes in providing natural coastal protection during Norte events.

Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin and Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Identification of Extreme Events

“…Other cases are the studies carried out by Rey et al [56] and Ruiz-Salcines et al [57], where the effects of TCs were modeled as a direct function of the variables representing each phenomenon.…”

Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

“…Even though the Norte used in this study generated the maximum residual tide in 30 years, the return period associated with the Norte-induced total water level was of only three years, as the highest wind intensity and storm surge associated with the Norte occurred near low tide. If the Norte had occurred during spring high tide, the storm impact would have been more significant [16]. Interaction between residual and astronomical tides, as well as their effect on determining return periods, is discussed in [3].…”

“…The combined effects of sea level rise, potentially increased tidal ranges, and more frequent hurricane storm surges, will have a significant impact on coastal inundation, which will elevate the risk to the population, economic and natural environments, and more of the low-lying areas may become uninhabitable [14,15]. Moreover, the pressure from the increasing population within low-lying coastal regions often translates into natural defense degradation such as dunes [16], in turn increasing coastal flooding and erosion risk [17]. However, the projection of flood risk due to the impact of climate change is marred by uncertainties related to the modeling of the physics of climate, hydrological, hydraulic domains, vulnerability domains, policies to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, future human behavior, including future GHG emissions, technological advancements, adaptation strategies, and other aspects [18].…”

Evaluación De Áreas Susceptibles a La Inundación Por Marea De Tormenta Generada Por Huracanes en El Archipiélago De San Andrés, Providencia Y Santa Catalina, Colombia

“…En el archipiélago no se disponen de mediciones de nivel del mar durante el paso de CT, y dado que este mismo modelo hidrodinámico fue usado para estudios similares en la Península de Yucatán (Rey et al, 2019(Rey et al, , 2020, se usaron los mismos parámetros de calibración del modelo hidrodinámico empleados en dichos estudios.…”

“…El mojado y secado de los elementos en el mallado de cálculo está incluido en el modelo hidrodinámico tomando en cuenta los trabajos de Zhao et al (1994) y Sleigh et al (1998). Este modelo hidrodinámico ha sido utilizado en recientes estudios científicos, como ejemplo podemos mencionar a Meza-Padilla et al (2015) y Rey et al (2018Rey et al ( , 2019Rey et al ( , 2020.…”