Purpose -This article aims to show the opportunity and benefits of linking territorial foresight tools to urban planning procedures. Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in-depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages.Design/methodology/approach -These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.Findings -Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory. In addition, the study confirms that foresight offers interesting opportunities for urban planners, such as anticipating changes, fostering participation and building networks, in contrast to its perception as a mere story-telling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis.Research limitations/implications -In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners, three sets of implications -functional, parametric and spatial -are displayed to provide substantial information for policy makers.Originality/value -The value of the present work lies in the synergy that can be generated between territorial foresight and urban planning, offering a great opportunity for policy makers to use futurists' output as input for urban planners' work.

In the past, urban planners have been quite reluctant to incorporate foresight methods in their professional practice, despite the benefits that they might have gained from using futures studies. Nevertheless, recent initiatives have been taken to bring foresight into the urban realm with differing outcomes: some have attained public notoriety, others have hardly benefitted from public exposure.This paper tries to assess recent foresight exercises applied to cities by evaluating three major issues: (1) have foresight practitioners understood cities complexity?; (2) have urban planners employed adequate tools to generate plausible future visions?; and (3) are city policy makers using foresight studies to limit urban uncertainty? To answer these questions, a selected number of foresight examples were classified in distinctive categories and a set of assessment criteria was established.Five futures studies taxonomies were distinguished. First, intergovernmental bodies have undertaken foresight exercises, which foresee the evolution of cities at a global o regional level. Second, the cities themselves have carried out foresight initiatives carried out, which are mostly linked to strategic planning processes. Third, some universities have developed visions of how cities may evolve in the future. Fourth, technology oriented corporations have explored how Smart Cities may resolve some key challenges faced by contemporary cities. Finally, architects and spatial planners have traditionally expressed on visual and narrative terms how cities should be designed and planned for the coming generations.Obviously, such an array of heterogeneous approaches provides very different outcomes in terms of content and city impact. For undertaking an objective assessment, three criteria groups were established to evaluate different foresight approaches to cities: (a) how urban complexity was understood and interpreted by future visions; (b) what type of forward-looking activities were used to envision the future; and (c) what kind of direct and indirect impacts were generated by the foresight approach.Those criteria were used to assess 20 case studies which either have international relevance or which constitute good illustrative examples of the five taxonomies mentioned before. Mostly secondary documented sources were used to validate cases' assessment. When public information was not considered sufficiently reliable, short electronic surveys were used to complete assessments.Preliminary research outcomes show growing doubts about the appropriateness of the foresight tools employed in cities and about the competency of foresight practitioners in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of contemporary cities. Furthermore, policy makers do not seem to grasp the potential of foresight to formulate urban strategies. In brief, a critical assessment of these initiatives may provide some clues for developing new and more creative ways for envisioning futures in cities.NOTE: This paper is based on partial results of a research pr...

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En los 25 años de existencia de nuestra revista CIUR, diversos cambios sociales, económicos, tecnológicos, ambientales y de gobierno han afectado con mayor o menor intensidad a la práctica de la planificación urbana y territorial. En estos años han surgido nuevas formas de hacer urbanismo como respuesta a nuevas demandas, se han consolidado otras tradicionales por su demostrada utilidad social y se han cuestionado otras obsoletas por su ineficacia para afrontar los retos de las ciudades contemporáneas. Sin ánimo de efectuar un recorrido exhaustivo sobre las vicisitudes que ha experimentado el Urbanismo en el último cuarto de siglo, en este breve artículo me centraré en describir la evolución que han seguido los estudios del futuro en nuestro campo profesional.Históricamente, uno de los objetivos fundamentales de los urbanistas ha sido tomar decisiones en el presente para guiar desarrollo las actividades urbanas en el futuro y así mejorar las condiciones de vida. En otras palabras, los urbanistas han tratado de prever la evolución futura de las ciudades con el fin de anticipar y corregir los posibles impactos que pudieran afectarlas. Sin embargo, en la actualidad los planificadores urbanos no parecen perseguir con mucho convencimiento ese objetivo. A principios del siglo XX, visionarios como Daniel H. Burnham, Antonio Sant'Elia o Le Corbusier se esforzaron en escenificar con dibujos y palabras cómo serían las ciudades del futuro. Detrás de estas visiones de futuro no había reflexiones y análisis muy rigurosos que fundamentaran sus propuestas urbanas, más bien el sustento procedía de la intuición e imaginación del propio arquitecto-urbanista. A pesar de todo, esas visiones urbanas, cargadas de fuertes dosis de utopía, eran capaces de estimular e ilusionar a una amplia audiencia ciudadana.A partir de los años 50 los urbanistas se volcaron en el desarrollo de modelos cuantitativos como la opción más rigurosa y precisa para prever el futuro, pero al mismo tiempo la menos amigable para comunicarse con los ciudadanos (HALL, 1996;TERÁN, 1996). Pronto estos modelos generaron un profundo desencanto debido a la magnitud de los errores cometidos en las predicciones, poniendo así de manifiesto las limitaciones del urbanismo científico y tecnocrático. Al descrédito sufrido por los modelos de simulación se sumó la incertidumbre producida por las turbulencias acaecidas en los años 70 --crisis energética, agotamiento de los sistemas políticos, crecientes impactos ambientales y cambios demográficos-que dejaron obsoletos los paradigmas anteriores. Bajo estas circunstancias, el planificador perdió sus marcos de referencia tradicionales y terminó reconociendo su impotencia para realizar previsiones fiables y explicar fenómenos urbanos complejos mediante leyes científicas y patrones regulares. De este modo, los urbanistas se fueron distanciando de las técnicas de previsión y pasaron a practicar una planificación más contingente, pragmática y cortoplacista.A mitad de los años noventa, en determinados campos de conocimiento renació el ...

New informationand communication technologies (ICTs) are offering unprecedented opportunities and challenges for innovating in a collaborative way at the academic and research realm. With the purpose of taking advantage of these opportunities, a project called "Parallel Virtual Workshop (PVW)" has been set in a Master's Program to pursue academic internationalization, to provide professional exposure to students and to develop a multidisciplinary planning methodology. Within PVW, ICTs are used to assemble these goals, while cutting down costs. PVW proposal is described, outcomes are presented, and strengths and weaknesses are discussed. Finally, and since it is an ongoing project, future work is presented. Overall assessment indicates that PVW may become an integrated, efficient and innovative approach to respond to present challenges faced by postgraduate programs that intend to attract an international audience at a reasonable cost.

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