Linking territorial foresight and urban planning

Abstract

Purpose -This article aims to show the opportunity and benefits of linking territorial foresight tools to urban planning procedures. Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in-depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages.Design/methodology/approach -These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.Findings -Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory. In addition, the study confirms that foresight offers interesting opportunities for urban planners, such as anticipating changes, fostering participation and building networks, in contrast to its perception as a mere story-telling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis.Research limitations/implications -In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners, three sets of implications -functional, parametric and spatial -are displayed to provide substantial information for policy makers.Originality/value -The value of the present work lies in the synergy that can be generated between territorial foresight and urban planning, offering a great opportunity for policy makers to use futurists' output as input for urban planners' work.

Foresight as a Tool for the Planning and Implementation of Visions for Smart City Development

“…In the context of city development, foresight focuses on the need to create a coherent vision of the city in order to plan and manage future long-term changes and create opportunities for new investments in the local urban economy [72]. The foresight project at the city level was launched in the 1980s in the Singapore City-State [73] and next in Atlanta in the USA [53], Birmingham, Bristol, Cambridge, Lancaster, Liverpool, Manchester, Milton Keynes, Newcastle, Reading, Rochdale in United Kingdom [54,72], Spain [55], Konin, Lublin, Wrocław in Poland [56,74,75], Rustavi in Georgia [76], Bulungan in Borneo [7].…”

“…Urban foresight mainly focuses on creating a coherent vision of the city to plan and manage future long-term changes [7,53,54,56,72,[74][75][76]. Foresight, in relation to cities, has as well been applied in such specific research areas as urban spatial planning [55], demographic change [77], climate change and energy innovations [78,79] as well as ageing society [80].…”

“…It was recognized as a process enabling the construction of development strategies, addressing global challenges and shaping the long-term policies of many large and small countries, e.g., the USA, Japan, Great Britain, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, Spain, Mexico and Peru [49][50][51][52]. At present, it is gaining popularity at the regional [50,51] as well as urban level, in such countries as the USA [53], Great Britain [54], Spain [55], Poland [56]. Despite a number of benefits that arise from the use of foresight in relation to the development of a country, region or cities, thus far no foresight project focused on smart city development has been initiated.…”

Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities

“…Confronted with this situation, most urban planners recognised their impotence for drawing reliable predictions, and turned toward short-term contingency planning as a way to navigate in a very uncertain context (Fernández Güell & Redondo, 2012).…”

Brief review on spatial planning and its current relation with future studies

“…economic and technological changes went f aster and did not f ollow a linear pattern, f orcing planners to use short-term and contingency planning as a way to avoid uncertainty(Fernández Güell & Redondo, 2012).Nowadays, the use of f uture studies in spatial planning is considered a priority under three main arguments. First, the high level of complexity and turbulence that characterizes the cities in the twenty-f irst Century.…”