Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities

Abstract

In the past, urban planners have been quite reluctant to incorporate foresight methods in their professional practice, despite the benefits that they might have gained from using futures studies. Nevertheless, recent initiatives have been taken to bring foresight into the urban realm with differing outcomes: some have attained public notoriety, others have hardly benefitted from public exposure.This paper tries to assess recent foresight exercises applied to cities by evaluating three major issues: (1) have foresight practitioners understood cities complexity?; (2) have urban planners employed adequate tools to generate plausible future visions?; and (3) are city policy makers using foresight studies to limit urban uncertainty? To answer these questions, a selected number of foresight examples were classified in distinctive categories and a set of assessment criteria was established.Five futures studies taxonomies were distinguished. First, intergovernmental bodies have undertaken foresight exercises, which foresee the evolution of cities at a global o regional level. Second, the cities themselves have carried out foresight initiatives carried out, which are mostly linked to strategic planning processes. Third, some universities have developed visions of how cities may evolve in the future. Fourth, technology oriented corporations have explored how Smart Cities may resolve some key challenges faced by contemporary cities. Finally, architects and spatial planners have traditionally expressed on visual and narrative terms how cities should be designed and planned for the coming generations.Obviously, such an array of heterogeneous approaches provides very different outcomes in terms of content and city impact. For undertaking an objective assessment, three criteria groups were established to evaluate different foresight approaches to cities: (a) how urban complexity was understood and interpreted by future visions; (b) what type of forward-looking activities were used to envision the future; and (c) what kind of direct and indirect impacts were generated by the foresight approach.Those criteria were used to assess 20 case studies which either have international relevance or which constitute good illustrative examples of the five taxonomies mentioned before. Mostly secondary documented sources were used to validate cases' assessment. When public information was not considered sufficiently reliable, short electronic surveys were used to complete assessments.Preliminary research outcomes show growing doubts about the appropriateness of the foresight tools employed in cities and about the competency of foresight practitioners in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of contemporary cities. Furthermore, policy makers do not seem to grasp the potential of foresight to formulate urban strategies. In brief, a critical assessment of these initiatives may provide some clues for developing new and more creative ways for envisioning futures in cities.NOTE: This paper is based on partial results of a research pr...

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