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Disturbances are increasing globally due to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate. This study determines whether a disturbance that affects the physiology of individual trees can be used to predict the response of the ecosystem by weighing two competing hypothesis at annual time scales: (a) changes in ecosystem fluxes are proportional to observable patterns of mortality or (b) to explain ecosystem fluxes the physiology of dying trees must also be incorporated. We evaluate these hypotheses by analyzing 6 years of eddy covariance flux data collected throughout the progression of a spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) epidemic in a Wyoming Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii)-subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forest and testing for changes in canopy conductance (g c ), evapotranspiration (ET), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 . We predict from these hypotheses that (a) g c , ET, and NEE all diminish (decrease in absolute magnitude) as trees die or (b) that (1) g c and ET decline as trees are attacked (hydraulic failure from beetle-associated blue-stain fungi) and (2) NEE diminishes both as trees are attacked (restricted gas exchange) and when they die. Ecosystem fluxes declined as the outbreak progressed and the epidemic was best described as two phases: (I) hydraulic failure caused restricted g c , ET (28 ± 4% decline, Bayesian posterior mean ± standard deviation), and gas exchange (NEE diminished 13 ± 6%) and (II) trees died (NEE diminished 51 ± 3% with minimal further change in ET to 36 ± 4%). These results support hypothesis b and suggest that model predictions of ecosystem fluxes following massive disturbances must be modified to account for changes in tree physiological controls and not simply observed mortality.

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior.

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