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It is widely believed that population outbreaks of the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalts Zimm.) are caused by vagaries of climate, such as periods of severe drought. According to this view, D. frontalts population dynamics are dominated by densityindependent processes. We have statistically analyzed a So-yr record of D. frontalts activity in east Texas and have assessed the relative roles of density-independent and density-dependent factors in beetle population fluctuations. Regressionsof the rate of population change on three climatic variables were not significant. By contrast, both time-series and regression analyses provided strong and consistent evidence for delayed density regulation of D. frontalts populations. Thus, in contrast to previous analyses, we conclude that D. frontalts outbreaks are driven not by stochastic fluctuations of weather, but by some unknown population process acting in a delayed density-dependent manner. This result provides a starting point for a current study that will experimentally test various hypotheses concerning the role of natural enemies in D. frontalts cycles.

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by approximately 1-4 degrees C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3 degrees C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3 degrees C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.

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Among the most striking changes in ecosystems are those that happen abruptly and resist return to the original condition (i.e., regime shifts). This frequently involves conspicuous changes in the abundance of one species (e.g., an oubreaking pest or keystone species). Alternate attractors in population dynamics could explain switches between low and high levels of abundance, and could underlie some cases of regime shifts in ecosystems; this longstanding theoretical possibility has been difficult to test in nature. We compared the ability of an alternate attractors model versus two competing models to explain population fluctuations in the tree‐killing bark beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis. Frequency distributions of abundance were distinctly bimodal, a prediction of the alternate attractors model, strongly indicating the lack of a single, noisy equilibrium. Time series abundance data refuted the existence of strong delayed density‐dependence or nonlinearities, as required by the endogenous cycles model. The model of alternate attractors was further supported by the existence of positive density‐dependence at intermediate beetle abundances. Experimental manipulations show that interactions with competitors and shared enemies could create a locally stable equilibrium in small populations of D. frontalis. High variation among regions and years in the abundance of predators and competitors could permit switches between alternate states. Dendroctonus frontalis now provides the strongest case that we know of for alternate attractors in natural population dynamics. The accompanying demographic instability appears to underlie spatially extensive outbreaks that have lasting impacts on forest ecosystems. Understanding feedbacks in populations with alternate attractors can help to identify thresholds underlying regime shifts, and potentially manage them to avoid undesirable impacts.

Different enantiomeric ratios and elution rates of the inhibitor pheromones verbenone and racemic endo-brevicomin were evaluated for their effects on the numerical response of the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonusfrontalis Zimm., to attractant-baited traps. Enantiomeric ratios and elution rates of verbenone were important factors in inhibiting response of male D. frontalis. Deterrence was most effective for enantiomeric ratios of verbenone containing 34 and 50% of the (+) enantiomer. Using a 34% (+): 66% (−) mixture of verbenone, the number of male D. frontalis captured in attractant-baited traps declined as elution rates increased from 4.2 to 12.5 mg/h. None of the enantiomeric ratios or elution rates of verbenone tested consistently influenced female response. endo-Brevicomin added to attractant-baited traps reduced catches of male D. frontalis, but did not significantly reduce catches further when added to traps also emitting verbenone. Female catches were not reduced significantly by the presence of endo-brevicomin. Numerical responses of the predatory beetle Thanasimusdubius Fab. are generally unaffected by the presence of verbenone alone or in combination with endo-brevicomin.