Non‐native tree (NNT) species have been transported worldwide to create or enhance services that are fundamental for human well‐being, such as timber provision, erosion control or ornamental value; yet NNTs can also produce undesired effects, such as fire proneness or pollen allergenicity. Despite the variety of effects that NNTs have on multiple ecosystem services, a global quantitative assessment of their costs and benefits is still lacking. Such information is critical for decision‐making, management and sustainable exploitation of NNTs. We present here a global assessment of NNT effects on the three main categories of ecosystem services, including regulating (RES), provisioning (PES) and cultural services (CES), and on an ecosystem disservice (EDS), i.e. pollen allergenicity. By searching the scientific literature, country forestry reports, and social media, we compiled a global data set of 1683 case studies from over 125 NNT species, covering 44 countries, all continents but Antarctica, and seven biomes. Using different meta‐analysis techniques, we found that, while NNTs increase most RES (e.g. climate regulation, soil erosion control, fertility and formation), they decrease PES (e.g. NNTs contribute less than native trees to global timber provision). Also, they have different effects on CES (e.g. increase aesthetic values but decrease scientific interest), and no effect on the EDS considered. NNT effects on each ecosystem (dis)service showed a strong context dependency, varying across NNT types, biomes and socio‐economic conditions. For instance, some RES are increased more by NNTs able to fix atmospheric nitrogen, and when the ecosystem is located in low‐latitude biomes; some CES are increased more by NNTs in less‐wealthy countries or in countries with higher gross domestic products. The effects of NNTs on several ecosystem (dis)services exhibited some synergies (e.g. among soil fertility, soil formation and climate regulation or between aesthetic values and pollen allergenicity), but also trade‐offs (e.g. between fire regulation and soil erosion control). Our analyses provide a quantitative understanding of the complex synergies, trade‐offs and context dependencies involved for the effects of NNTs that is essential for attaining a sustained provision of ecosystem services.
Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by approximately 1-4 degrees C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3 degrees C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3 degrees C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.
Transgenic silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) lines were produced in order to modify lignin biosynthesis. These lines carry COMT (caffeate/5-hydroxyferulate O-methyltransferase) gene from Populus tremuloides driven by constitutive promoter 35S CaMV (cauliflower mosaic virus) or UbB1 (ubiquitin promoter from sunflower). The decreased syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio was found in stem and leaf lignin of 35S CaMV-PtCOMT transgenic silver birch lines when compared to non-transformed control or UbB1-PtCOMT lines. In controlled feeding experiments the leaves of transgenic birch lines as well as controls were fed to insect herbivores common in boreal environment, i.e., larvae of Aethalura punctulata, Cleora cinctaria and Trichopteryx carpinata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) as well as the adults of birch leaf-feeding beetles Agelastica alni (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) and Phyllobius spp. (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). The feeding preferences of these herbivores differed in some cases among the tested birch lines, but these differences could not be directly associated to lignin modification. They could as well be explained by other characteristics of leaves, either natural or caused by transgene site effects. Growth performance of lepidopteran larvae fed on transgenic or control leaves did not differ significantly.
Understanding the nature and relative importance of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) effects on population dynamics remains a central problem in ecology. Evaluation of these forces has been constrained by the lack of long time series of population densities and largely limited to populations chosen for their unique dynamics (e.g., outbreak insects). Especially in herbivore populations, the relative contributions of bottom-up and top-down effects (resources and natural enemies, respectively) have been difficult to compare because population data have rarely been combined with resource measurements. The feeding scars of a wood-mining herbivorous insect (Phytobia betulae Kangas; Diptera: Agromyzidae) of birch trees (Betula pendula and Betula pubescens) provided long time series data (47 and 65 years) of absolute abundance (larvae͞ tree) in replicated trees within replicated stands. Measurements of tree annual rings provided matching time series of host age and physiological status. Analyses showed a powerful exogenous effect of stand age on temporal variation in insect abundance (58 and 32% of the variance in two populations, respectively). With the additional effects of variation among trees, 77 and 64% of the total variance in abundance was attributable to exogenous bottom-up effects of host plants. Potential endogenous effects were evident as immediate linear density dependence, but only accounted for Ϸ10% of the total variance. Abundance of Phytobia is primarily a function of disturbance history, which produces a mosaic of different aged birch stands that harbor Phytobia populations of different sizes. Density-dependence tends to regulate local populations around levels determined by host suitability.
Among the most striking changes in ecosystems are those that happen abruptly and resist return to the original condition (i.e., regime shifts). This frequently involves conspicuous changes in the abundance of one species (e.g., an oubreaking pest or keystone species). Alternate attractors in population dynamics could explain switches between low and high levels of abundance, and could underlie some cases of regime shifts in ecosystems; this longstanding theoretical possibility has been difficult to test in nature. We compared the ability of an alternate attractors model versus two competing models to explain population fluctuations in the tree‐killing bark beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis. Frequency distributions of abundance were distinctly bimodal, a prediction of the alternate attractors model, strongly indicating the lack of a single, noisy equilibrium. Time series abundance data refuted the existence of strong delayed density‐dependence or nonlinearities, as required by the endogenous cycles model. The model of alternate attractors was further supported by the existence of positive density‐dependence at intermediate beetle abundances. Experimental manipulations show that interactions with competitors and shared enemies could create a locally stable equilibrium in small populations of D. frontalis. High variation among regions and years in the abundance of predators and competitors could permit switches between alternate states. Dendroctonus frontalis now provides the strongest case that we know of for alternate attractors in natural population dynamics. The accompanying demographic instability appears to underlie spatially extensive outbreaks that have lasting impacts on forest ecosystems. Understanding feedbacks in populations with alternate attractors can help to identify thresholds underlying regime shifts, and potentially manage them to avoid undesirable impacts.
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