We present the results of photometric surveys for stellar rotation in the Hyades and in Praesepe, using data obtained as part of the SuperWASP exoplanetary transit‐search programme. We determined accurate rotation periods for more than 120 sources whose cluster membership was confirmed by common proper motion and colour–magnitude fits to the clusters’ isochrones. This allowed us to determine the effect of magnetic braking on a wide range of spectral types for expected ages of ∼600 Myr for the Hyades and Praesepe. Both clusters show a tight and nearly linear relation between J−Ks colour and rotation period in the F, G and K spectral range. This confirms that loss of angular momentum was significant enough that stars with strongly different initial rotation rates have converged to the same rotation period for a given mass, by the ages of Hyades and Praesepe. In the case of the Hyades, our colour–period sequence extends well into the M dwarf regime and shows a steep increase in the scatter of the colour–period relation, with identification of numerous rapid rotators from ∼0.5 M⊙ down to the lowest masses probed by our survey (∼0.25 M⊙). This provides crucial constraints on the rotational braking time‐scales and further clears the way to use gyrochronology as an accurate age measurement tool for main‐sequence stars.

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Abstract. Observational constraint of simulated aerosol and cloud properties is an essential part of building trustworthy climate models for calculating aerosol radiative forcing. Models are usually tuned to achieve good agreement with observations, but tuning produces just one of many potential variants of a model, so the model uncertainty cannot be determined. Here we estimate the uncertainty in aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) in a tuned climate model by constraining 4 million variants of the HadGEM3-UKCA aerosol–climate model to match nine common observations (top-of-atmosphere shortwave flux, aerosol optical depth, PM2.5, cloud condensation nuclei at 0.2 % supersaturation (CCN0.2), and concentrations of sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon, as well as decadal trends in aerosol optical depth and surface shortwave radiation.) The model uncertainty is calculated by using a perturbed parameter ensemble that samples 27 uncertainties in both the aerosol model and the physical climate model, and we use synthetic observations generated from the model itself to determine the potential of each observational type to constrain this uncertainty. Focusing over Europe in July, we show that the aerosol ERF uncertainty can be reduced by about 30 % by constraining it to the nine observations, demonstrating that producing climate models with an observationally plausible “base state” can contribute to narrowing the uncertainty in aerosol ERF. However, the uncertainty in the aerosol ERF after observational constraint is large compared to the typical spread of a multi-model ensemble. Our results therefore raise questions about whether the underlying multi-model uncertainty would be larger if similar approaches as adopted here were applied more widely. The approach presented in this study could be used to identify the most effective observations for model constraint. It is hoped that aerosol ERF uncertainty can be further reduced by introducing process-related constraints; however, any such results will be robust only if the enormous number of potential model variants is explored.

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Abstract. The effect of observational constraint on the ranges of uncertain physical and chemical process parameters was explored in a global aerosol–climate model. The study uses 1 million variants of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) that sample 26 sources of uncertainty, together with over 9000 monthly aggregated grid-box measurements of aerosol optical depth, PM2.5, particle number concentrations, sulfate and organic mass concentrations. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of parameters related to secondary organic aerosol, anthropogenic SO2 emissions, residential emissions, sea spray emissions, dry deposition rates of SO2 and aerosols, new particle formation, cloud droplet pH and the diameter of primary combustion particles. Observational constraint rules out nearly 98 % of the model variants. On constraint, the ±1σ (standard deviation) range of global annual mean direct radiative forcing (RFari) is reduced by 33 % to −0.14 to −0.26 W m−2, and the 95 % credible interval (CI) is reduced by 34 % to −0.1 to −0.32 W m−2. For the global annual mean aerosol–cloud radiative forcing, RFaci, the ±1σ range is reduced by 7 % to −1.66 to −2.48 W m−2, and the 95 % CI by 6 % to −1.28 to −2.88 W m−2. The tightness of the constraint is limited by parameter cancellation effects (model equifinality) as well as the large and poorly defined “representativeness error” associated with comparing point measurements with a global model. The constraint could also be narrowed if model structural errors that prevent simultaneous agreement with different measurement types in multiple locations and seasons could be improved. For example, constraints using either sulfate or PM2.5 measurements individually result in RFari±1σ ranges that only just overlap, which shows that emergent constraints based on one measurement type may be overconfident.

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall affects a large population in South Asia. Observations show a decline in ISM rainfall from 1950 to 1999 and a recovery from 1999 to 2013. While the decline has been attributed to global warming, aerosol effects, deforestation, and a negative-to-positive phase transition of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), the cause for the recovery remains largely unclear. Through analyses of a 57-member perturbed-parameter ensemble of model simulations, this study shows that the externally forced rainfall trend is relatively weak and is overwhelmed by large internal variability during both 1950-99 and 1999-2013. The IPO is identified as the internal mode that helps modulate the recent decline and recovery of the ISM rainfall. The IPO induces ISM rainfall changes through moisture convergence anomalies associated with an anomalous Walker circulation and meridional tropospheric temperature gradients and the resultant anomalous convection and zonal moisture advection. The negative-to-positive IPO phase transition from 1950 to 1999 reduces what would have been an externally forced weak upward rainfall trend of 0.01 to 20.15 mm day 21 decade 21 during that period, while the rainfall trend from 1999 to 2013 increases from the forced value of 0.42 to 0.68 mm day 21 decade 21 associated with a positive-to-negative IPO phase transition. Such a significant modulation of the historical ISM rainfall trends by the IPO is confirmed by another 100member ensemble of simulations using perturbed initial conditions. Our findings highlight that the interplay between the effects of external forcing and the IPO needs be considered for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in South Asia.

Abstract. The effect of observational constraint on the ranges of uncertain physical and chemical process parameters was explored in a global aerosol–climate model. The study uses 1 million variants of the HadGEM3-UKCA climate model that sample 26 sources of uncertainty, together with over 9000 monthly aggregated grid-box measurements of aerosol optical depth, PM2.5, particle number concentrations, sulphate and organic mass concentrations. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of parameters related to secondary organic aerosol, anthropogenic SO2 emissions, residential emissions, sea spray emissions, dry deposition rates of SO2 and aerosols, new particle formation, cloud droplet pH and the diameter of primary combustion particles. Observational constraint rules out nearly 98 % of the model variants. On constraint, the ± 1σ (standard deviation) range of global annual mean direct radiative forcing, RFari, is reduced by 33 % to −0.14 to −0.26 W m−2, and the 95 % credible interval (CI) is reduced by 34 % to −0.1 to −0.32 W m−2. For the global annual mean aerosol–cloud radiative forcing, RFaci, the ± 1σ range is reduced by 7 % to −1.66 to −2.48 W m−2, and the 95 % CI by 6 % to −1.28 to −2.88 W m−2. The tightness of the constraint is limited by parameter cancellation effects (model equifinality) as well as the large and poorly defined representativeness error associated with comparing point measurements with a global model. The constraint could also be narrowed if model structural errors that prevent simultaneous agreement with different measurement types in multiple locations and seasons could be improved. For example, constraints using either sulphate or PM2.5 measurements individually result in RFari ± 1σ ranges that only just overlap, which shows that emergent constraints based on one measurement type may be over-confident.