Batteries have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental and social impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly cathode materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently highlighted as barriers to widespread electric vehicle adoption. Circular economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity, we undertake a dynamic global material flow analysis of pack-level materials that includes scenario analysis for changing battery cathode chemistries and electric vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise and through the year 2040 to estimate the potential global and regional circularity of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum, copper, and graphite, although the analysis is focused on the cathode materials. Under idealized conditions, retired batteries could supply 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel globally in 2040. If the current mix of cathode chemistries evolves to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low cobalt chemistry, there is potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt in 2040. If the market steers away from cathodes containing cobalt, to an LFP-dominated market, cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant and reach circularity before 2040. For each market to benefit from the recovery of secondary materials, recycling and manufacturing infrastructure must be developed in each region.
