Circularity of Lithium-Ion Battery Materials in Electric Vehicles

Abstract

Batteries have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental and social impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly cathode materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently highlighted as barriers to widespread electric vehicle adoption. Circular economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity, we undertake a dynamic global material flow analysis of pack-level materials that includes scenario analysis for changing battery cathode chemistries and electric vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise and through the year 2040 to estimate the potential global and regional circularity of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum, copper, and graphite, although the analysis is focused on the cathode materials. Under idealized conditions, retired batteries could supply 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel globally in 2040. If the current mix of cathode chemistries evolves to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low cobalt chemistry, there is potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt in 2040. If the market steers away from cathodes containing cobalt, to an LFP-dominated market, cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant and reach circularity before 2040. For each market to benefit from the recovery of secondary materials, recycling and manufacturing infrastructure must be developed in each region.

Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages

“…The cathode materials of the state-of-the-art battery cathode technologies are assumed to shift from NMC-111 toward NCA and NMC-811 19,68,75 . The low-cobalt battery cathode technologies (NMC-9.5.5 and advanced NCA) 71,80 , new LFP 10 , and next-generation cobalt-free technologies 28,81 are assumed to gradually penetrate the market from 2020, 2020, and 2030, respectively, replacing the state-of-the-art technologies, and then further approaching 100% by 2050.…”

“…hile renewable energy and low-carbon technology transitions are imperative to achieve the climate neutrality and post-COVID-19 green recovery ambitions of many countries 1,2 , such transitions require various types and significant amounts of critical materials (e.g., rare earth for magnets, platinum for catalysts, and lithium for batteries) [3][4][5][6][7] . In particular, while the decarbonization of the transport sector can benefit from sustainable fuels such as electrofuels and biomethane 8 , battery technology, which depends fundamentally on critical materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, is widely deemed indispensable in renewable energy storage and automobile electrification 9,10 . Both lithium and cobalt are deemed critical materials by major economies such as the U.S. 11 , China 12 , the EU 13 , Japan 14 , and Australia 15 due to their potential geopolitical supply risks and the importance of the renewable energy transition.…”

A circular economy approach is needed for electric vehicles

“…Waste electric vehicle batteries pose challenges in terms of fires and hazardous contamination, and the recovery of resources requires environmentally sound recycling 10 . Under idealized conditions, it has been estimated that recycling end-of-life electric vehicle batteries could provide 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese and 53% of nickel needed globally in 2040 14 . But we are currently far from such an ideal scenario.…”

“…Unlike lead acid batteries, which are profitable for recycling, the recycling processes for electric vehicle batteries are still developing, and this, combined with current low volumes, means that recycling is mainly driven by regulation. Extended producer responsibility in the European Union, and waste management regulations in countries including China, Japan and India, have also specifically targeted electric vehicle batteries, but there remains a lack of effective policy in much of the world 14 .…”

Modelling the Demand and Access of Mineral Resources in a Changing World

“…The development of materials databases [18][19][20][21] has enabled a comprehensive understanding of metal and mineral stocks and flows within society at different scales through top-down studies (e.g., [22][23][24][25][26][27]). Many recent efforts have been devoted to estimating future demand for raw materials through bottom-up, stock-based analysis in the energy (e.g., [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]), transportation (e.g., [31,[38][39][40][41][42]), and construction sectors (e.g., [39,[43][44][45][46][47]), its energy demand and production cost (e.g., [6,39]), environmental impacts (e.g., [39,[48][49][50]), or to reserve estimation (e.g., [51][52][53]) and production capacities. However, very few studies have attempted to combine all these dimensions into single models.…”