Abstract. Dams as well as protective dikes and levees are critical infrastructures whose associated risk must be properly managed in a continuous and updated process. Usually, dam safety management has been carried out assuming stationary climatic and non-climatic conditions. However, the projected alterations due to climate change are likely to affect different factors driving dam risk. Although some reference institutions develop guidance for including climate change in their decision support strategies, related information is still vast and scattered and its application to specific analyses such as dam safety assessments remains a challenge. This article presents a comprehensive and multidisciplinary review of the impacts of climate change that could affect dam safety. The global effect can be assessed through the integration of the various projected effects acting on each aspect of the risk, from the input hydrology to the calculation of the consequences of the flood wave on population and assets at risk. This will provide useful information for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in their decision-making process.
Abstract. Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than just a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.
Abstract. Drought indices based on precipitation are commonly used to identify and characterize droughts. Due to the general complexity of droughts, the comparison of index-identified events with droughts at different levels of the complete system, including soil humidity or river discharges, relies typically on model simulations of the latter, entailing potentially significant uncertainties. The present study explores the potential of using precipitation-based indices to reproduce observed droughts in the lower part of the Jinsha River basin (JRB), proposing an innovative approach for a catchment-wide drought detection and characterization. Two indicators, namely the Overall Drought Extension (ODE) and the Overall Drought Indicator (ODI), have been defined. These indicators aim at identifying and characterizing drought events on the basin scale, using results from four meteorological drought indices (standardized precipitation index, SPI; rainfall anomaly index, RAI; percent of normal precipitation, PN; deciles, DEC) calculated at different locations of the basin and for different timescales. Collected historical information on drought events is used to contrast results obtained with the indicators. This method has been successfully applied to the lower Jinsha River basin in China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts. Historical drought events that occurred from 1960 to 2014 have been compiled and cataloged from different sources, in a challenging process. The analysis of the indicators shows a good agreement with the recorded historical drought events on the basin scale. It has been found that the timescale that best reproduces observed events across all the indices is the 6-month timescale.
Abstract. Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than by a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.
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