Abstract. The Monte Rosa east face, Italian Alps, is one of the highest flanks in the Alps (2200-4500 m a.s.l.). Steep hanging glaciers and permafrost cover large parts of the wall. Since the end of the Little Ice Age (about 1850), the hanging glaciers and firn fields have retreated continuously. During recent decades, the ice cover of the Monte Rosa east face experienced an accelerated and drastic loss in extent. Some glaciers have completely disappeared. New slope instabilities and detachment zones of gravitational mass movements developed and enhanced rock fall and debris flow activity was observed. This study is based on multidisciplinary investigations and shows that most of the detachment zones of rock fall and debris flows are located in areas, where the surface ice disappeared only recently. Furthermore, most of these detachment zones are located in permafrost zones, for the most part close to the modelled and estimated lower boundary of the regional permafrost distribution. In the view of ongoing or even enhanced atmospheric warming and associated changes it is therefore very likely that the slope instabilities in the Monte Rosa east face will continue to represent a critical hazard source.
Abstract. Process interactions and chain reactions, the present shift of cryospheric hazard zones due to atmospheric warming, and the potential far reach of glacier disasters make it necessary to apply modern remote sensing techniques for the assessment of glacier and permafrost hazards in highmountains. Typically, related hazard source areas are situated in remote regions, often difficult to access for physical and/or political reasons. In this contribution we provide an overview of air-and spaceborne remote sensing methods suitable for glacier and permafrost hazard assessment and disaster management. A number of image classification and change detection techniques support high-mountain hazard studies. Digital terrain models (DTMs), derived from optical stereo data, synthetic aperture radar or laserscanning, represent one of the most important data sets for investigating high-mountain processes. Fusion of satellite stereo-derived DTMs with the DTM from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) is a promising way to combine the advantages of both technologies. Large changes in terrain volume such as from avalanche deposits can indeed be measured even by repeat satellite DTMs. Multitemporal data can be used to derive surface displacements on glaciers, permafrost and landslides. Combining DTMs, results from spectral image classification, and multitemporal data from change detection and displacement measurements significantly improves the detection of hazard potentials. Modelling of hazardous processes based on geographic information systems (GIS) complements the remote sensing analyses towards an integrated assessment of glacier and permafrost hazards in mountains. Major present limitations in the application of remote sensing to glacier and permafrost hazards in mountains are, on the one hand, of technical nature (e.g. combination and fusion of different methods and data; improved unCorrespondence to: A. Kääb (kaeaeb@geo.unizh.ch) derstanding of microwave backscatter). On the other hand, better dissemination of remote sensing expertise towards institutions involved in high-mountain hazard assessment and management is needed in order to exploit the large potential of remote sensing in this field.
The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored.We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing.We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times.Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.
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