On the influence of topographic, geological and cryospheric factors on rock avalanches and rockfalls in high-mountain areas

Fischer, Luzia; Purves, Ross S.; Huggel, Christian; Noetzli, Jeannette; Haeberli, Wilfried

doi:10.5194/nhess-12-241-2012

Cited by 182 publications

(166 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(38 reference statements)

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“…For implementation within HP, we do not distinguish between whether the slope is bedrock or ice-covered, and assume an impact into a lake is possible from any slope [30°(cf. Allen et al 2011;Fischer et al 2012), where the overall slope trajectory is[14°(cf. Noetzli et al 2003;Romstad et al 2009).…”

Section: Hazard Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

et al. 2016

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk 'hotspots', illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from 'high' to 'very high'. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges.

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Section: Hazard Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

et al. 2016

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“…From studies carried out in the European Alps, permafrost on shaded slopes is present above 2500 m, whereas on S-facing slopes it is found above 3500 m (Fischer et al, 2012;Gruber et al, 2004). Climate in the European Alps depends on the complex interaction between orography and the general circulation of the atmosphere (Beniston, 2006).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

Paranunzio

Laio

Chiarle

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Climate change is seriously affecting the cryosphere in terms, for example, of permafrost thaw, alteration of rain/snow ratio, and glacier shrinkage. There is concern about the increasing number of rockfalls at high elevation in the last decades. Nevertheless, the exact role of climate parameters in slope instability at high elevation has not been fully explored yet. In this paper, we investigate 41 rockfalls listed in different sources (newspapers, technical reports, and CNR IRPI archive) in the elevation range 1500-4200 m a.s.l. in the Italian Alps between 1997 and 2013 in the absence of an evident trigger. We apply and improve an existing data-based statistical approach to detect the anomalies of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) associated with rockfall occurrences. The identified climate anomalies have been related to the spatiotemporal distribution of the events. Rockfalls occurred in association with significant temperature anomalies in 83 % of our case studies. Temperature represents a key factor contributing to slope failure occurrence in different ways. As expected, warm temperatures accelerate snowmelt and permafrost thaw; however, surprisingly, negative anomalies are also often associated with slope failures. Interestingly, different regional patterns emerge from the data: higher-than-average temperatures are often associated with rockfalls in the Western Alps, while in the Eastern Alps slope failures are mainly associated with colder-than-average temperatures.

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“…Recently increasing interest in the thermal state of permafrost is related to the construction of infrastructure (Bommer et al, 2010), rock-slope instability (e.g. Fischer et al, 2012;Gruber and Haeberli, 2007;Huggel et al, 2010;Krautblatter et al, 2013), rock glacier (e.g. Arenson et al, 2002;Kenner et al, 2014) and talus slope dynamics (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and solutions for long-term permafrost borehole temperature monitoring and data interpretation

Luethi¹,

Phillips²

2016

Geogr. Helv.

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Abstract. Long-term borehole temperature monitoring in mountain permafrost environments is challenging under the hostile conditions reigning in alpine environments. On the basis of data measured in the SLF borehole network we show three situations where ground temperature data should be interpreted with caution. (i) Thermistors have the tendency to drift, particularly if exposed to moisture or mechanical strain. This induces apparent warming or cooling, which can be difficult to differentiate from real ground temperature changes. Recalibration of thermistor chains is impossible if they cannot be extracted as a result of borehole deformation in creeping permafrost terrain. A solution using zero-curtain-based detection of drift and correction of data is presented. This method is however limited to the active layer, due to the lack of a reference temperature at greater depth. (ii) In contrast to drift-induced apparent warming, actual warming may be induced by natural processes or by the effects of construction activity. (iii) Control data from neighbouring boreholes are sometimes used to fill data gaps and discern drift -however these data may only underline the strong spatial variability of ground temperatures rather than provide measurement redundancy. A selection of recently observed problems regarding borehole monitoring in a hostile measurement environment are discussed, and advantages and possible drawbacks of various solutions including measurement redundancy or alternate instrumentation are presented.

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On the influence of topographic, geological and cryospheric factors on rock avalanches and rockfalls in high-mountain areas

Cited by 182 publications

References 43 publications

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

Challenges and solutions for long-term permafrost borehole temperature monitoring and data interpretation

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