The transport sector emits a wide variety of gases and aerosols, with distinctly different characteristics which influence climate directly and indirectly via chemical and physical processes. Tools that allow these emissions to be placed on some kind of common scale in terms of their impact on climate have a number of possible uses such as: in agreements and emission trading schemes; when considering potential trade-offs between changes in emissions resulting from technological or operational developments; and/or for comparing the impact of different environmental impacts of transport activities. Many of the non-CO 2 emissions from the transport sector are short-lived substances, not currently covered by the Kyoto Protocol. There are formidable difficulties in developing metrics and these are particularly acute for such short-lived species. One difficulty concerns the choice of an appropriate structure for the metric (which may depend on, for example, the design of any climate policy it is intended to serve) and the associated value judgements on the appropriate time periods to consider; these choices affect the perception of the relative importance of short-and long-lived species. A second difficulty is the quantification of input parameters (due to underlying uncertainty in atmospheric processes). In addition, for some transport-related emissions, the values of metrics (unlike the gases included in the Kyoto Protocol) depend on where and when the emissions are introduced into the atmosphere-both the regional distribution and, for aircraft, the distribution as a function of altitude, are important. In this assessment of such metrics, we present Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) as these have traditionally been used in the implementation of climate policy. We also present Global Temperature Change Potentials (GTPs) as an alternative metric, as this, or a similar metric may be more appropriate for use in some circumstances. We use radiative forcings and lifetimes from the literature to derive GWPs and GTPs for the main transport-related emissions, and discuss the uncertainties in these estimates. We find large variations in metric (GWP and GTP) values for NO x , mainly due to the dependence on location of emissions but also because of inter-model differences and differences in experimental design. For aerosols we give only global-mean values due to an inconsistent picture amongst available studies regarding regional dependence. The uncertainty in the presented metric values reflects the current state of understanding; the ranking of the various components with respect to our confidence in the given metric values is also given. While the focus is mostly on metrics for comparing the climate impact of emissions, many of the issues are equally relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion metrics, which are also discussed.

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Aircraft emissions impact human health though degradation of air quality. The majority of previous analyses of air quality impacts from aviation have considered only landing and takeoff emissions. We show that aircraft cruise emissions impact human health over a hemispheric scale and provide the first estimate of premature mortalities attributable to aircraft emissions globally. We estimate ∼8000 premature mortalities per year are attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. This represents ∼80% of the total impact of aviation (where the total includes the effects of landing and takeoff emissions), and ∼1% of air quality-related premature mortalities from all sources. However, we note that the impact of landing and takeoff emissions is likely to be under-resolved. Secondary H(2)SO(4)-HNO(3)-NH(3) aerosols are found to dominate mortality impacts. Due to the altitude and region of the atmosphere at which aircraft emissions are deposited, the extent of transboundary air pollution is particularly strong. For example, we describe how strong zonal westerly winds aloft, the mean meridional circulation around 30-60°N, interaction of aircraft-attributable aerosol precursors with background ammonia, and high population densities in combination give rise to an estimated ∼3500 premature mortalities per year in China and India combined, despite their relatively small current share of aircraft emissions. Subsidence of aviation-attributable aerosol and aerosol precursors occurs predominantly around the dry subtropical ridge, which results in reduced wet removal of aviation-attributable aerosol. It is also found that aircraft NO(x) emissions serve to increase oxidation of nonaviation SO(2), thereby further increasing the air quality impacts of aviation. We recommend that cruise emissions be explicitly considered in the development of policies, technologies and operational procedures designed to mitigate the air quality impacts of air transportation.

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▪ Abstract  The interdependency of aircraft technological systems, the global reach of the aviation transport industry, and the uncertainty surrounding potential atmospheric effects have made defining the relationship between aviation and environmental impact an arduous task. Air travel continues to experience the fastest growth of all modes of transport, and although the energy intensity of the aviation transport system continues to decline, fuel use and total emissions have steadily risen. This trend, which represents a conflict between growth and environmental impact, has motivated the aircraft manufacturing and airline industries, the scientific community, and governmental bodies to consider what pace of emissions reduction is acceptable. This paper analyzes the historical influence of aircraft performance on cost to examine the potential pace of future efficiency improvements and emissions reduction. Technological and operational influences on aircraft energy intensity are quantified and correlated with direct operating cost and aircraft price using analytical and statistical models built upon historical data for US airlines. The energy intensity reduction potential and economic characteristics of future aircraft are also projected, through extrapolations of historical trends in aircraft technology and operations.

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In August 2001, the Aerodyne Mobile Laboratory simultaneously measured NO, NO2, and CO2 within 350 m of a taxiway and 550 m of a runway at John F. Kennedy Airport. The meteorological conditions were such that taxi and takeoff plumes from individual aircraft were clearly resolved against background levels. NO and NO2 concentrations were measured with 1 s time resolution using a dual tunable infrared laser differential absorption spectroscopy instrument, utilizing an astigmatic multipass Herriott cell. The CO2 measurements were also obtained at 1 s time resolution using a commercial non-dispersive infrared absorption instrument. Plumes were measured from over 30 individual planes, ranging from turbo props to jumbo jets. NOx emission indices were determined by examining the correlation between NOx (NO + NO2) and CO2 during the plume measurements. Several aircraft tail numbers were unambiguously identified, allowing those specific airframe/engine combinations to be determined. The resulting NOx emission indices from positively identified in-service operating airplanes are compared with the published International Civil Aviation Organization engine certification test database collected on new engines in certification test cells.