HISTORICAL AND FUTURE TRENDS IN AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE, COST, AND EMISSIONS

Abstract

▪ Abstract The interdependency of aircraft technological systems, the global reach of the aviation transport industry, and the uncertainty surrounding potential atmospheric effects have made defining the relationship between aviation and environmental impact an arduous task. Air travel continues to experience the fastest growth of all modes of transport, and although the energy intensity of the aviation transport system continues to decline, fuel use and total emissions have steadily risen. This trend, which represents a conflict between growth and environmental impact, has motivated the aircraft manufacturing and airline industries, the scientific community, and governmental bodies to consider what pace of emissions reduction is acceptable. This paper analyzes the historical influence of aircraft performance on cost to examine the potential pace of future efficiency improvements and emissions reduction. Technological and operational influences on aircraft energy intensity are quantified and correlated with direct operating cost and aircraft price using analytical and statistical models built upon historical data for US airlines. The energy intensity reduction potential and economic characteristics of future aircraft are also projected, through extrapolations of historical trends in aircraft technology and operations.

Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles

“…Based on estimates of technology availability (discussed below) and taking recent trends into account, the technical potential for efficiency improvement (measured as energy-intensity reduction) in new aircraft appears to be in the range of 25% to 50% by 2050, or about 0.5% to 1.0% per year on average . This is similar to estimates made by Lee, et al (2001), who used the Boeing 777 (introduced in 1995) as a baseline aircraft. However, some of this will already have occurred by 2008 with the introduction of new models such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787.…”

“…However, recent introductions such as the B777 are much more efficient than the fleet average. Sources: Lee, et al, 2001 and updates.…”

Innovative Sources of Development Finance: Global Cooperation in the Twenty‐first Century

“…Kerosene, along with other components of aviation fuel, contributes toward emission of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, water vapour, sulphur oxides and aerosol particles. Lee et al (2001) estimate that energy consumption of the fleets in service will fall annually by only 1-2 per cent on account of technological improvements while demand for air transport will grow by 4-6 per cent per year. Thus taxing such fuels would have important environmental benefits as well.…”

“…It estimated that allowing for adjustments 10 in demand for flights in response to higher prices, this would generate annual revenue of 10-16 billion euros. Although, at the present time, any form of taxation of air travel would have the effect of reducing demand for an industry that is already in considerable financial difficulties, IPPC (1999) and Lee et al (2001) estimate that future demand for air transport is likely to be buoyant. Between 1990 and 2050 the proportion of the total volume of passengers choosing to travel by air is expected to quadruple from 9 per cent to 36 per cent.…”

Analyzing the moderating effects of respondent type and experience on the fuel efficiency improvement in air transport using structural equation modeling

“…Fuel efficiency in air transport (FEAT) can be defined as ratio of fuel consumed in liters to revenue tonne kilometer (RTK) [4,13,51]. Fuel efficiency of transport aircrafts mainly depends upon two main factors i.e., technology & design, and aircrafts operations [4,51].…”