Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles

Nykvist, Björn; Nilsson, Måns

doi:10.1038/nclimate2564

Cited by 1,515 publications

(868 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Besides battery prices, gasoline prices, electricity rates, and yearly mileage significantly impact when EVs reach cost competitiveness. These forecasts are lower than previously reported literature values 23 .…”

Section: Forecasting Future Storage Pricescontrasting

confidence: 82%

“…We incorporate the effect of time lags on patents and knowledge stock depreciation, where patents in the past have less effect on prices than recent patents (Supplementary Note 3). We find lower cost reductions than existing forecasts in the literature, which in the past has found a systematic underestimation of falling electric vehicle battery costs 23 . We account for raw material prices in a 'four-factor' model controlling for the impact of raw lithium and cobalt prices, which we find to lower the learning rate slightly (14.82%), and attributes greater reductions to innovation rather than deployment.…”

Section: Forecasting Future Storage Pricescontrasting

confidence: 66%

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Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition

2017

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The clean energy transition requires a co-evolution of innovation, investment, and deployment strategies for emerging energy storage technologies. A deeply decarbonized energy system research platform needs materials science advances in battery technology to overcome the intermittency challenges of wind and solar electricity. Simultaneously, policies designed to build market growth and innovation in battery storage may complement cost reductions across a suite of clean energy technologies. Further integration of R&D and deployment of new storage technologies paves a clear route toward cost-e ective low-carbon electricity. Here we analyse deployment and innovation using a two-factor model that integrates the value of investment in materials innovation and technology deployment over time from an empirical dataset covering battery storage technology. Complementary advances in battery storage are of utmost importance to decarbonization alongside improvements in renewable electricity sources. We find and chart a viable path to dispatchable US$1 W −1 solar with US$100 kWh −1 battery storage that enables combinations of solar, wind, and storage to compete directly with fossil-based electricity options.

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Section: Forecasting Future Storage Pricescontrasting

confidence: 82%

Section: Forecasting Future Storage Pricescontrasting

confidence: 66%

Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition

2017

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“…The cost of the Li-ion battery for electric vehicle (BEV) represents the 25% of the total cost of the EV. The annual cost reduction of BEVs has been estimated around 8% [2]. Consequently, this represents a chance to evaluate possible scenarios of the DCFCS in order to develop a smart charging station and control methods for these flexible loads [15].…”

Section: Integration Of the DC Fast Charging In Lv Gridsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many factors are contributing to the spread of electric transportation such as the high levels of motor vehicle pollution in many cities. In addition, the costs of electrical batteries are dropping to affordable levels with reasonable lifetimes and reliability [2]. Nevertheless, one main reason that prevents part of the new potential customers to opt for EVs is the longer charging time compared to gas fueled vehicles.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

DC Fast-charging stations for EVs controlled by a local battery storage in low voltage grids

Gjelaj

Træholt

Hashemi

et al. 2017

2017 IEEE Manchester PowerTech

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“…Improved lithium-ion batteries have extended the mileage of electric cars from about 150 kilometres in 2012 to more than 500 km today, for Tesla's Model S 100D. Yet lithium-ion batteries remain expensive (US$250 per kilowatt-hour) 1 and of limited efficiency (200-250 watt-hours per kilogram) 2,3 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%