The processes controlling advance and retreat of outlet glaciers in fjords draining the Greenland Ice Sheet remain poorly known, undermining assessments of their dynamics and associated sea-level rise in a warming climate. Mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased six-fold over the last four decades, with discharge and melt from outlet glaciers comprising key components of this loss. Here we acquired oceanographic data and multibeam bathymetry in the previously uncharted Sherard Osborn Fjord in northwest Greenland where Ryder Glacier drains into the Arctic Ocean. Our data show that warmer subsurface water of Atlantic origin enters the fjord, but Ryder Glacier’s floating tongue at its present location is partly protected from the inflow by a bathymetric sill located in the innermost fjord. This reduces under-ice melting of the glacier, providing insight into Ryder Glacier’s dynamics and its vulnerability to inflow of Atlantic warmer water.

Abstract. Understanding of long-term dynamics of glaciers and ice caps is vital to assess their recent and future changes, yet few long-term reconstructions using ice flow models exist. Here we present simulations of the maritime Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in Norway from the mid-Holocene through the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present day, using a numerical ice flow model combined with glacier and climate reconstructions.In our simulation, under a linear climate forcing, we find that Hardangerjøkulen grows from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene to its maximum extent during the LIA in a nonlinear, spatially asynchronous fashion. During its fastest stage of growth (2300-1300 BP), the ice cap triples its volume in less than 1000 years. The modeled ice cap extent and outlet glacier length changes from the LIA until today agree well with available observations. Volume and area for Hardangerjøkulen and several of its outlet glaciers vary out-of-phase for several centuries during the Holocene. This volume-area disequilibrium varies in time and from one outlet glacier to the next, illustrating that linear relations between ice extent, volume and glacier proxy records, as generally used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, have only limited validity.We also show that the present-day ice cap is highly sensitive to surface mass balance changes and that the effect of the ice cap hypsometry on the mass balancealtitude feedback is essential to this sensitivity. A mass balance shift by +0.5 m w.e. relative to the mass balance from the last decades almost doubles ice volume, while a decrease of 0.2 m w.e. or more induces a strong mass balance-altitude feedback and makes Hardangerjøkulen disappear entirely. Furthermore, once disappeared, an additional +0.1 m w.e. relative to the present mass balance is needed to regrow the ice cap to its present-day extent. We expect that other ice caps with comparable geometry in, for example, Norway, Iceland, Patagonia and peripheral Greenland may behave similarly, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Abstract. This study suggests that cold-ice processes may be more widespread than previously assumed, even within temperate glacial systems. We present the first systematic mapping of cold ice at the snout of the temperate glacier Midtdalsbreen, an outlet of the Hardangerjøkulen icefield (Norway), from 43 line kilometres of ground-penetrating radar data. Results show a 40 m wide cold-ice zone within the majority of the glacier snout, where ice thickness is <10 m. We interpret ice to be cold-based across this zone, consistent with basal freeze-on processes involved in the deposition of moraines. We also find at least two zones of cold ice up to 15 m thick within the ablation area, occasionally extending to the glacier bed. There are two further zones of cold ice up to 30 m thick in the accumulation area, also extending to the glacier bed. Cold-ice zones in the ablation area tend to correspond to areas of the glacier that are covered by late-lying seasonal snow patches that reoccur over multiple years. Subglacial topography and the location of the freezing isotherm within the glacier and underlying subglacial strata likely influence the transport and supply of supraglacial debris and formation of controlled moraines. The wider implication of this study is the possibility that, with continued climate warming, temperate environments with primarily temperate glaciers could become polythermal in forthcoming decades with (i) persisting thinning and (ii) retreat to higher altitudes where subglacial permafrost could be and/or become more widespread. Adversely, the number and size of late-lying snow patches in ablation areas may decrease and thereby reduce the extent of cold ice, reinforcing the postulated change in the thermal regime.

Recent and past retreat of marine-terminating glaciers are broadly consistent with observed ocean warming, yet responses vary significantly within regions experiencing similar ocean conditions. We assess how fjord geometry modulates glacier response to a regional ocean warming on decadal to millennial time scales, by using an idealized, numerical model of fast-flowing glaciers including a crevasse-depth calving criterion. Our simulations show that, given identical climate forcing, grounding line responses can differ by tens of kilometers due to variations in channel width. We identify fjord mouths and embayments as vulnerable geometries, showing that glaciers in these fjords are prone to rapid, irreversible retreat, independent of the presence of a fjord sill. This irreversible retreat has relevance for the potential future recovery of marine ice sheets, if the current anthropogenic warming is reduced, or reversed, as well as for the response of marine ice sheets to past climate states; including the warm Bølling-Allerød interstadial, the Younger Dryas cold reversal and the Little Ice Age.

Basal friction heavily controls the dynamics of fast‐flowing glaciers. However, the best approach to modeling friction is unclear, increasing uncertainties in projections of future mass loss and sea‐level rise. Here, we compare six friction laws and evaluate them for Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland, using a higher order three‐dimensional ice‐sheet model. We model glacier retreat and mass loss under an ocean‐only warming until year 2300, while not considering the effects of a future warmer atmosphere. Regardless of the friction law, we find that breakup of Petermann's ice shelf is likely to occur within the next decades. However, future grounding‐line retreat differs by 10s of km and estimates of sea‐level rise may quadruple, depending on the friction law employed. A bedrock ridge halts the retreat for four of the laws, and Petermann retreats furthest when applying a Budd or a Coulomb‐type “till law.” Depending on the friction law, sea‐level contributions differ by 133% and 282% by 2300 for 2°C and 5°C ocean warming scenarios, respectively.

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Abstract. Rapid retreat of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers coincides with regional warming trends, which have broadly been used to explain these rapid changes. However, outlet glaciers within similar climate regimes experience widely contrasting retreat patterns, suggesting that the local fjord geometry could be an important additional factor. To assess the relative role of climate and fjord geometry, we use the retreat history of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, since the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum in 1850 as a baseline for the parameterization of a depth- and width-integrated ice flow model. The impact of fjord geometry is isolated by using a linearly increasing climate forcing since the LIA and testing a range of simplified geometries. We find that the total length of retreat is determined by external factors – such as hydrofracturing, submarine melt and buttressing by sea ice – whereas the retreat pattern is governed by the fjord geometry. Narrow and shallow areas provide pinning points and cause delayed but rapid retreat without additional climate warming, after decades of grounding line stability. We suggest that these geometric pinning points may be used to locate potential sites for moraine formation and to predict the long-term response of the glacier. As a consequence, to assess the impact of climate on the retreat history of a glacier, each system has to be analyzed with knowledge of its historic retreat and the local fjord geometry.

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