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The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT), approximately 34 Ma ago, marks a period of major global cooling and inception of the Antarctic ice sheet. Proxies of deep circulation suggest a contemporaneous onset or strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Proxy evidence of gradual salinification of the North Atlantic and tectonically driven isolation of the Arctic suggest that closing the Arctic-Atlantic gateway could have triggered the AMOC at the EOT. We demonstrate this trigger of the AMOC using a new paleoclimate model with late Eocene boundary conditions. The control simulation reproduces Eocene observations of low Arctic salinities. Subsequent closure of the Arctic-Atlantic gateway triggers the AMOC by blocking freshwater inflow from the Arctic. Salt advection feedbacks then lead to cessation of overturning in the North Pacific. These circulation changes imply major warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, and simultaneous cooling of the North Pacific, but no interhemispheric change in temperatures.

Arctic coastal zones serve as a sensitive filter for terrigenous matter input onto the shelves via river discharge and coastal erosion. This material is further distributed across the Arctic by ocean currents and sea ice. The coastal regions are particularly vulnerable to changes related to recent climate change. We compiled a pan-Arctic review that looks into the changing Holocene sources, transport processes and sinks of terrigenous sediment in the Arctic Ocean. Existing palaeoceanographic studies demonstrate how climate warming and the disappearance of ice sheets during the early Holocene initiated eustatic sea-level rise that greatly modified the physiography of the Arctic Ocean. Sedimentation rates over the shelves and slopes were much greater during periods of rapid sea-level rise in the early and middle Holocene, as a result of the relative distance to the terrestrial sediment sources. However, estimates of suspended sediment delivery through major Arctic rivers do not indicate enhanced delivery during this time, which suggests enhanced rates of coastal erosion. The increased supply of terrigenous material to the outer shelves and deep Arctic Ocean in the early and middle Holocene might serve as analogous to forecast changes in the future Arctic.To access the supplementary material for this article, please see supplementary files under Article Tools online.Rapid changes in the environmental conditions of the Arctic have been observed over recent decades. These include decreasing summer and winter sea-ice extent, increasing annual river discharge, increasing areal extent of open-water areas over the Arctic shelves and lengthening of the open-water season Serreze et al. 2007;Kwok et al. 2009;Wagner et al. 2011;Stroeve et al. 2012;Fichot et al. 2013;Zhang et al. 2013). These changes will likely lead to important transformations in sedimentary environments and the pathways and processes of terrigeneous particulate cycling. In particular, they could play a role in sediment resuspension and coastal erosion (e.g., Atkinson 2005;Eicken et al. 2005; Carmack et al. 2006; Anisimov et al. 2007;Lantuit et al. 2012).The impact of increased export of turbid waters from rivers and coastal regions on Arctic marine ecosystems remains uncertain; it could either increase delivery of nutrients and promote productivity or suppress photosynthesis in the light-limited algal populations by scattering absorbing sunlight (Retamal et al. 2008). An adequate understanding of the pathways of terrigenous material is needed to elucidate connections between sediment and ecosystem dynamics under a changing climate. Research efforts assessing recent trends and variability of terrigenous particulate matter inputs into the Arctic Ocean have been carried out during the past decades and discussed in reviews by Rachold et al. (2004), Macdonald et al. (2010), Forbes (2011) and Goñ i et al. (2013). However, the ability to forecast the future significance of land-derived sedimentary inputs into the Arctic Ocean also needs to account for th...

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.