To investigate the prevalence and cause of concentration‐discharge (C‐Q) relationships for carbon, nutrients, major ions, and particulates, we analyzed 40 years of water quality data from 293 monitoring stations in France. Catchments drained diverse landscapes and ranged from 50 to 110,000 km2, together covering nearly half of France. To test for differences during low and high flows, we calculated independent C‐Q slopes above and below the median discharge. We found that 84% of all catchment‐element combinations were chemodynamic for at least half of the hydrograph and 60% of combinations showed nonlinear C‐Q curves. Only two or three of the nine possible C‐Q modalities were manifest for each parameter, and these modalities were stable through time, suggesting that intrinsic and extrinsic elemental properties (e.g., solubility, reactivity, and source dynamics) set basic C‐Q templates for each parameter, which are secondarily influenced by biological activity during low flows, and the interaction between hydrology and catchment characteristics at high flows. Several patterns challenged current C‐Q views, including low‐flow chemostasis for TSS in 66% of catchments, low‐flow biological mediation of NO3− in 71% of catchments, and positive C‐Q for dissolved organic carbon independent of catchment size in 80% of catchments. Efforts to reduce nutrient loading decreased phosphorus concentration and altered C‐Q curves, but NO3− continued to increase. While C‐Q segmentation requires more data than a single analysis, the prevalence of nonlinear C‐Q slopes demonstrates the potential information loss associated with linear or monotonic analysis of C‐Q relationships, and conversely, the value of long‐term monitoring.

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Understanding how water and solutes enter and propagate through freshwater landscapes in the Anthropocene is critical to protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems and ensuring human water security. However, high hydrochemical variability in headwater streams, where most carbon and nutrients enter river networks, has hindered effective modelling and management. We developed an analytical framework informed by landscape ecology and catchment hydrology to quantify spatiotemporal variability across scales, which we tested in 56 headwater catchments, sampled periodically over 12 years in western France. Unexpectedly, temporal variability in dissolved carbon, nutrients and major ions was preserved moving downstream and spatial patterns of water chemistry were stable on annual to decadal timescales, partly because of synchronous variation in solute concentrations. These findings suggest that while concentration and flux cannot be extrapolated among subcatchments, periodic sampling of headwaters provides valuable information about solute sources and subcatchment resilience to disturbance.

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Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength Climatic Change (2013) 119:359-374 DOI 10.1007 Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that twothirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

As high latitudes warm, a portion of the large organic carbon pool stored in permafrost will become available for transport to aquatic ecosystems as dissolved organic carbon (DOC). If permafrost DOC is biodegradable, much will be mineralized to the atmosphere in freshwater systems before reaching the ocean, accelerating carbon transfer from permafrost to the atmosphere, whereas if recalcitrant, it will reach marine ecosystems where it may persist over long time periods. We measured biodegradable DOC (BDOC) in water flowing from collapsing permafrost (thermokarst) on the North Slope of Alaska and tested the role of DOC chemical composition and nutrient concentration in determining biodegradability. DOC from collapsing permafrost was some of the most biodegradable reported in natural systems. However, elevated BDOC only persisted during active permafrost degradation, with a return to predisturbance levels once thermokarst features stabilized. Biodegradability was correlated with background nutrient concentration, but nutrient addition did not increase overall BDOC, suggesting that chemical composition may be a more important control on DOC processing. Despite its high biodegradability, permafrost DOC showed evidence of substantial previous microbial processing, and we present four hypotheses explaining this incongruity. Because thermokarst features form preferentially on river banks and lake shores and can remain active for decades, thermokarst may be the dominant short-term mechanism delivering sediment, nutrients, and biodegradable organic matter to aquatic systems as the Arctic warms.

International audienceAs Arctic regions warm and frozen soils thaw, the large organic carbon pool stored in permafrost becomes increasingly vulnerable to decomposition or transport. The transfer of newly mobilized carbon to the atmosphere and its potential influence upon climate change will largely depend on the degradability of carbon delivered to aquatic ecosystems. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a key regulator of aquatic metabolism, yet knowledge of the mechanistic controls on DOC biodegradability is currently poor due to a scarcity of long-term data sets, limited spatial coverage of available data, and methodological diversity. Here, we performed parallel biodegradable DOC (BDOC) experiments at six Arctic sites (16 experiments) using a standardized incubation protocol to examine the effect of methodological differences commonly used in the literature. We also synthesized results from 14 aquatic and soil leachate BDOC studies from across the circum-arctic permafrost region to examine pan-arctic trends in BDOC. An increasing extent of permafrost across the landscape resulted in higher DOC losses in both soil and aquatic systems. We hypothesize that the unique composition of (yedoma) permafrost-derived DOC combined with limited prior microbial processing due to low soil temperature and relatively short flow path lengths and transport times, contributed to a higher overall terrestrial and freshwater DOC loss. Additionally, we found that the fraction of BDOC decreased moving down the fluvial network in continuous permafrost regions, i.e. from streams to large rivers, suggesting that highly biodegradable DOC is lost in headwater streams. We also observed a seasonal (January–December) decrease in BDOC in large streams and rivers, but saw no apparent change in smaller streams or soil leachates. We attribute this seasonal change to a combination of factors including shifts in carbon source, changing DOC residence time related to increasing thaw-depth, increasing water temperatures later in the summer, as well as decreasing hydrologic connectivity between soils and surface water as the thaw season progresses. Our results suggest that future climate warming-induced shifts of continuous permafrost into discontinuous permafrost regions could affect the degradation potential of thaw-released DOC, the amount of BDOC, as well as its variability throughout the Arctic summer. We lastly recommend a standardized BDOC protocol to facilitate the comparison of future work and improve our knowledge of processing and transport of DOC in a changing Arcti

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.