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In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previouswork through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes

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[1] During three moderate-magnitude earthquakes occurred in September-October 1997 in the central Apennines, Italy, accelerations larger than 0.5 g were recorded in the town of Nocera Umbra, 10 to 15 km N-NW of the epicenters. The accelerograph is sited in a fault zone, close to a N30°E tectonic contact. Six temporary seismological stations installed across the fault recorded 82 aftershocks occurred in two seismogenic zones: the Colfiorito-Sellano area, S-SE of the array, and the Gualdo Tadino area, to the north. The array data reveal large variations in terms of both peak ground motions and spectral amplitudes. Within the fault zone, amplifications show a strong dependence on the source azimuth. At the accelerograph site, the effects are particularly large for events from S-SE: peak ground motions are a factor of 14 larger than those of a reference site and conventional spectral ratios attain amplitudes as large as 50 at 7 Hz along the N30°E direction of motion, parallel to the strike of the fault. Nineteen strong motion accelerograms were then used to compare ground motion properties between weak and strong events up to M 0 = 1.2 Â 10 25 dyn cm. A particle motion analysis shows that the directional effect is also present in the strongest motions, even though the amplification of peak ground motion decreases when M 0 increases. Results from stochastic simulations indicate that such a behavior is not due to nonlinearity: applying the empirical weak motion transfer functions in a purely linear model the observed peak ground motions of the largest events are fit satisfactorily.

S U M M A R YDuring the M W 5.7 and 6.0 Umbria-Marche earthquakes of 1997 September 26, the historical centre of Nocera Umbra suffered MCS intensity VII-VIII. The zone is located on the top of a hill, a condition potentially favourable to ground motion amplification. However, also vulnerability is higher on the hill because of the ancient age of buildings. A temporary array of eight seismological stations was installed across the hill to quantify the amplification effect due to topography. Waveforms of 14 aftershocks (2.6 < M L < 4.1) are selected for the analysis. During each earthquake the largest amplitudes are observed on the hilltop, spectral ratios are computed using rotated horizontal components to search for directional effects. Amplifications are found in two separate frequency bands: one in the range 2-4 Hz, where the increase of amplitude is moderate (never exceeding a factor of 4) and the polarization is transversal to the hill major axis; the second above 10 Hz, where amplifications are larger and reach values as high as 25 Hz. High-frequency polarization varies for different sites and frequencies suggesting that smaller-scale complexities control the high frequency response. Synthetic seismograms of 2-D models confirm the occurrence of amplification, although not all details are fit by numerical simulations and the agreement between observations and models is significant only in terms of the fundamental resonance frequency, around 3 Hz. In the models, amplifications are much smaller than the observed ones. We conclude that topography could have been responsible for a small increase of damage in the hill zone but the most significant role on damage was played by the locally higher vulnerability.

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This study presents the results of 90 seismic ambient noise measurements in Palermo, the main city of Sicily (Italy). The dataset has been processed using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVNSR) technique and interpreted in terms of local geology, which is characterized by the presence of alluvial sediments of two riverbeds masked by urbanization since the seventeenth century. HVNSRs show significant variations in the study area: when the transition stiff to soft is crossed, a typical spectral peak appears in the HVNSRs, mostly in the frequency band 1-2 Hz, and exceeding a factor of 3 in amplitude. Using available information on subsurface geological structure, we compute theoretical 1D and 2D transfer functions. The resonance frequencies of soft soils obtained by HVNSR are well reproduced by the fundamental frequencies from numerical modeling.The distribution of frequency peaks of HVNSR and their amplitudes are also compared with the local damage caused by historical earthquakes. Previous studies demonstrated that damage variations in Palermo were controlled more by near-surface geology than building vulnerability. A uniform vulnerability is an ideal condition to test statistical methods and their capability in seeking correlation between HVNSR and potential damage due to local geological conditions. We apply two well-established multivariate statistical methodologies (factor analysis and canonical correlation) to the HVNSR dataset and macroseismic data (damage grades of the European macroseismic scale). Through these analyses we quantify the significance of the correlation between the HVNSR peak in the low-medium frequency range (0.5-3 Hz) and the occurrence of the highest damage grades. This approach allows us (1) to estimate the threshold value in the resulting linear combination of the HVNSR amplitudes, which separates zones of light damage from zones of significant damage, and therefore (2) to improve the spatial definition of potentially high hazard zones through a denser grid of microtremor measurements.

We present the results of seismological and geophysical investigations performed by the "Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia" team operating in Amatrice village (Central Italy), in the emergency phases following the Mw 6.0 event of August 24th 2016, that caused severe damage in downtown and surrounding areas. Data from seven seismic stations equipped with both weak and strong motion sensors are analyzed in terms of standard spectral ratio to empirically define amplification function using a bedrock reference site. Ambient vibration spectral ratios between horizontal and vertical component of motion are also evaluated in a large number of sites, spread out in the investigated area, to recover the resonance frequency of the soft soil outcropping layers and to generalize the results obtained by earthquake data. Ambient noise vibration are also used for applying a 2D array approach based on surface waves techniques in order to define the near-surface velocity model and to verify its lateral variation. The results allows to better understand the amplification factors in the investigated area, showing spatial variation of site effects despite of the homogeneous shallow geological condition indicated by the microzonation studies available at moment of the described field campaign. The analysis reveals a diffuse amplification effect which reaches its maximum values in downtown area with a resonant frequency of about 2 Hz. The obtained results were used to integrate the microzonation studies and they can be used for urban planning and reconstruction activities.