Loss estimation in Istanbul based on deterministic earthquake scenarios of the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)

Ansal, Atilla; Akinci, Aybige; Cultrera, Giovanna; Erdik, Mustafa; Pessina, Vera; Tönük, Gökçe; Ameri, Gabriele

doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2008.07.006

Cited by 89 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The applications of these tools mentioned here have been conducted for some parts of Istanbul (Karaman et al 2008b;Sesetyan et al 2011). Additionally, many comprehensive studies have been carried out in order to assess the seismic risks in Istanbul (Atakan et al 2002;Erdik et al 2003;Bal et al 2008;Ansal et al 2009). However, none of the studies carried out for Istanbul were able to provide an integrated system that generates physical models of urban areas including soil and structural systems.…”

Section: Application Of New Ies System For Istanbulmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of integrated earthquake simulation system for Istanbul

et al. 2016

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Recent advances in computing have brought a new and challenging way to tackle the earthquake hazard and disaster problems: integration of the seismic actions in the form of numerical models. For this purpose, integrated earthquake simulation (IES) has been developed in Japan, and now a new version is being developed in Turkey which targets Istanbul. This version of IES is being built in MATLAB and includes site response analysis and structural analysis of existing buildings with data obtained via GIS databases. In this study, we present an initial application in Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul where the results are expressed in the form of spatial distributions of ground motion and building responses. At the end of the analysis, it is seen that most of the buildings make small displacements and the displacement values are directly proportional to the total height of the structures. Since the obtained ground motion distribution and peak values are not very high, structural damage has not been observed under the current simulation. The effect of bedrock depth and soil parameters on strong ground motion distribution has been observed. The most effective ground motion locations in the selected area have been determined, and the critical buildings that have maximum displacement during the earthquake motion are detected. Currently, the IES on MATLAB does not include the source to bedrock wave propagation mechanism and the resulting ground motions at each grid point. In future studies, alternative models for this purpose along with input model parameters for Istanbul will be applied. Once the source-to-structure integrated model is complete, past earthquakes as well as potential scenario events in Istanbul will be modeled in the final form of IES on MATLAB. Results will be valuable for a variety of purposes ranging from disaster mitigation to emergency management. In future part of this study, site vibration tests will also be made for buildings that do not comply with seismic design codes and constitute the largest portion of the seismic risk. New models will be developed for these buildings and adopted into the IES system.

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Section: Application Of New Ies System For Istanbulmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of integrated earthquake simulation system for Istanbul

et al. 2016

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“…Additionally, various methods have been proposed and implemented to depict the consequences of hypothetical earthquakes in terms of risks (e.g., Karimi and Hüllermeier, 2007), structural damages (e.g., Bird and Bommer, 2004;Feyza Cinicioglu et al, 2007;Ansal et al, 2009), fatalities (e.g., Hashemi and Alesheikh, 2011b;Ansal et al, 2009;Coburn and Spence, 2002;JICA, 2000), and the economic costs (e.g., Montoya and Masser, 2005;Ergonul, 2005) all over the world and especially for the city of Tehran (JICA, 2000;Hashemi and Alesheikh, 2011b).…”

Section: Hashemi and A A Alesheikh: Development And Implementatimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although there have been many studies and proposed methods of fatality appraisals around the world (Ansal et al, 2009;JICA, 2000;Coburn and Spence, 2002), the Hashemi and Alesheikh (2011b) method is preferred here, because its parameters are customized for the city of Tehran, where EDA tool is assumed to be used. They estimated the number of casualties in each building separately based on its type, percent damage, population, and the day/night fatality ratio in the following manner:…”

Section: Casualty Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran

Hashemi

Alesheikh

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Achieving sustainable development in countries prone to earthquakes is possible with taking effective measures to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes. In this context, damage assessment of hypothetical earthquakes and planning for disaster management are important issues. Having a computer tool capable of estimating structural and human losses from earthquakes in a specific region may facilitate the decision-making process before and during disasters. Interoperability of this tool with wide-spread spatial analysis frameworks will expedite the data transferring process. In this study, the earthquake damage assessment (EDA) software tool is developed as an embedded extension within a GIS (geographic information system) environment for the city of Tehran, Iran. This GIS-based extension provides users with a familiar environment to estimate and observe the probable damages and fatalities of a deterministic earthquake scenario. The productivity of this tool is later demonstrated for southern Karoon parish, Region 10, Tehran. Three case studies for three active faults in the area and a comparison of the results with other research substantiated the reliability of this tool for additional earthquake scenarios.

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“…The earthquake hazard in the Marmara region has been studied by probabilistic methods (Atakan et al 2002;Erdik et al 2004). In addition to these earthquake hazard assessment studies, some researchers have attempted to model bedrock ground motions in the Marmara region using the hybrid broadband simulation technique Sørensen et al 2007, Ansal et al 2009Tanircan 2012;Mert et al 2014a, b). merged deterministic simulation for low-frequency ground motion with a semi-stochastic procedure forhigh-frequency ground motion in order to model broadband seismic wave propagation at bedrock in the Marmara region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sørensen et al (2007) also used the same hybrid model semi-stochastic methodology to estimate high frequencies and a deterministic model for low frequencies to assess the effect of source and attenuation parameters on simulated ground motion. Ansal et al (2009), to improve loss scenarios from earthquake, especially in terms of damage to buildings and casualties in Istanbul, calculated synthetic time series of ground motion using a methodology based on a hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach. Tanircan (2012), using a finite difference algorithm and combining it with a three-dimensional velocity structure for low-frequency and a stochastic algorithm for highfrequency earthquake simulation, obtained hybrid simulation of ground motion for Istanbul for three different scenarios as a result of an M w = 7.2 earthquake on the PIF.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using broadband ground motion simulation: a case study for the Prince Islands Fault, Marmara Sea

et al. 2016

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The main motivation for this study was the impending occurrence of a catastrophic earthquake along the Prince Island Fault (PIF) in the Marmara Sea and the disaster risk around the Marmara region, especially in Istanbul. This study provides the results of a physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology, using broadband strong ground motion simulations, for sites within the Marmara region, Turkey, that may be vulnerable to possible large earthquakes throughout the PIF segments in the Marmara Sea. The methodology is called physically based because it depends on the physical processes of earthquake rupture and wave propagation to simulate earthquake ground motion time histories. We included the effects of all considerable-magnitude earthquakes. To generate the high-frequency (0.5-20 Hz) part of the broadband earthquake simulation, real, small-magnitude earthquakes recorded by a local seismic array were used as empirical Green's functions. For the frequencies below 0.5 Hz, the simulations were obtained by using synthetic Green's functions, which are synthetic seismograms calculated by an explicit 2D/3D elastic finite difference wave propagation routine. By using a range of rupture scenarios for all considerablemagnitude earthquakes throughout the PIF segments, we produced a hazard calculation for frequencies of 0.1-20 Hz. The physically based PSHA used here followed the same procedure as conventional PSHA, except that conventional PSHA utilizes point sources or a series of point sources to represent earthquakes, and this approach utilizes the full rupture of earthquakes along faults. Furthermore, conventional PSHA predicts ground motion parameters by using empirical attenuation relationships, whereas this approach calculates synthetic seismograms for all magnitudes of earthquakes to obtain ground motion parameters. PSHA results were produced for 2, 10, and 50 % hazards for all sites studied in the Marmara region.

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Loss estimation in Istanbul based on deterministic earthquake scenarios of the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)

Cited by 89 publications

References 22 publications

Development of integrated earthquake simulation system for Istanbul

Development of integrated earthquake simulation system for Istanbul

Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran

Physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using broadband ground motion simulation: a case study for the Prince Islands Fault, Marmara Sea

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