Seismograms from 52 aftershocks of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake recorded at 25 stations distributed across the San Fernando Valley are examined to identify empirical Green's functions, and characterize the dependence of their waveforms on moment, focal mechanism, source and recording site spatial variations, recording site geology, and recorded frequency band. Recording distances ranged from 3.0 to 33.0 km, hypocentral separations ranged from 0.22 to 28.4 km, and recording site separations ranged from 0.185 to 24.2 km. The recording site geologies are diorite gneiss, marine and nonmarine sediments, and alluvium of varying thicknesses. Waveforms of events with moment below about 1.5×1021 dyn cm are independent of the source‐time function and are termed empirical Green's functions. Waveforms recorded at a particular station from events located within 1.0 to 3.0 km of each other, depending upon site geology, with very similar focal mechanism solutions are nearly identical for frequencies up to 10 Hz. There is no correlation to waveforms between recording sites at least 1.2 km apart, and waveforms are clearly distinctive for two sites 0.185 km apart. The geologic conditions of the recording site dominate the character of empirical Green's functions. Even for source spatial separations of up to 20.0 km, the empirical Green's functions at a particular site are consistent in frequency content, amplification, and energy distribution. Therefore, it is shown that empirical Green's functions can be used to obtain site response functions. The observations of empirical Green's functions are used as a basis for developing the theory for using empirical Green's functions in deconvolution for source pulses and synthesis of seismograms of larger earthquakes.

Microearthquakes have come into high public awareness due to being induced by the development and exploitation of enhanced and natural geothermal fields, hydrofracturing, and CO 2 sequestration sites. Characterizing and understanding the faulting process of induced earthquakes, which is generally achieved through moment tensor inversion, could both help in risk prediction and in reservoir development monitoring. However, this is a challenging task because of their lower signal-to-noise ratio at frequencies typically used in earthquake source analyses. Therefore, higher-resolution velocity models and modeling of seismic waves at higher frequencies are required. In this study, we examine both the potentials to obtain moment tensor solutions for small earthquakes and the uncertainty of those solutions. We utilize a short-period seismic network located in the Geysers geothermal field in northern California and limit our study to that which would be achieved by industry in a typical reservoir environment. We obtain full moment tensor solutions of M~3 earthquakes using waveform modeling and first-motion inversions. We find that these two data sets give complimentary but yet different solutions. Some earthquakes correspond possibly to complex processes in which both shear and tensile failures occur simultaneously or sequentially. This illuminates the presence of fluids at depth and their role for the generation of these small-magnitude earthquakes. Finally, since first motions are routinely obtained for all magnitude earthquakes, our approach could be extended to small earthquakes where noise level and complex Green's functions prohibit using waveforms in moment tensor inversions.

S U M M A R YWe present a physically based methodology to predict the range of ground-motion hazard for earthquakes along specific faults or within specific source volumes, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this methodology into probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). By 'physically based,' we refer to ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This approach replaces the aleatory uncertainty that current PSHA studies estimate by regression of empirical parameters with epistemic uncertainty that is expressed by the variability in the physical parameters of the earthquake rupture. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced by further research. We modelled wave propagation with empirical Green's functions. We applied our methodology to the 1999 September 7 M w = 6.0 Athens earthquake for frequencies between 1 and 20 Hz. We developed constraints on rupture parameters based on prior knowledge of the earthquake rupture process and on sources within the region, and computed a sufficient number of scenario earthquakes to span the full variability of ground motion possible for a magnitude M w = 6.0 earthquake with our approach. We found that: (1) our distribution of synthesized ground motions spans what actually occurred and that the distribution is realistically narrow; (2) one of our source models generates records that match observed time histories well; (3) certain combinations of rupture parameters produced 'extreme,' but not unrealistic ground motions at some stations; (4) the best-fitting rupture models occur in the vicinity of 38.05 • N, 23.60 • W with a centre of rupture near a 12-km depth and have nearly unilateral rupture toward the areas of high damage, which is consistent with independent investigations. We synthesized ground motion in the areas of high damage where strong motion records were not recorded from this earthquake. We also developed a demonstration PSHA for a single magnitude earthquake and for a single source region near Athens. We assumed an average return period of 1000 yr for this magnitude earthquake and synthesized 500 earthquakes distributed throughout the source zone, thereby having simulated a sample catalogue of ground motion for a period of 500 000 yr. We then used the synthesized ground motions rather than traditional attenuation relations for the PSHA.In this paper, we present a physically based methodology to predict a range of ground motions at a particular site that may occur from a particular magnitude earthquake along a specific fault or within a specific source volume, and demonstrate a means to incorporate this into traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). The prediction methodology is based upon the work first presented by Hutchings (1991Hutchings ( , 1994 and further developed by . The physical model proposed by the previous studies has been further developed in this study and the methodology expanded to include PSHA. We apply the methodology to the M w = 6.0, 1999 Athens earthquake. The full methodology i...

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a b s t r a c tIn this paper, we summarize the results of coupled thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical (THM) modeling in support of the Northwest Geysers EGS Demonstration Project, which aims at enhancing production from a known High Temperature Reservoir (HTR) (280-400 • C) located under the conventional (240 • C) geothermal steam reservoir. The THM modeling was conducted to investigate geomechanical effects of cold-water injection during the stimulation of the EGS, first to predict the extent of the stimulation zone for a given injection schedule, and then to conduct interpretive analyses of the actual stimulation. By using a calibrated THM model based on historic injection and microseismic data at a nearby well, we could reasonably predict the extent of the stimulation zone around the injection well, at least for the first few months of injection. However, observed microseismic evolution and pressure responses over the one-year stimulation-injection revealed more heterogeneous behavior as a result of more complex geology, including a network of shear zones. Therefore, for an interpretive analysis of the one-year stimulation campaign, we included two sets of vertical shear zones within the model; a set of more permeable NWstriking shear zones and a set of less permeable NE-striking shear zones. Our modeling indicates that the microseismic events in this system are related to shear reactivation of pre-existing fractures, triggered by the combined effects of injection-induced cooling around the injection well and rapid (but small) changes in steam pressure as far as a kilometer from the injection well. Overall, the integrated monitoring and modeling of microseismicity, ground surface deformations, reservoir pressure, fluid chemical composition, and seismic tomography depict an EGS system hydraulically bounded by some of the NE-striking low permeability shear zones, with the more permeable NW-striking shear zone providing liquid flow paths for stimulation deep (several kilometers) down into the HTR. The modeling indicates that a significant mechanical degradation (damage) inferred from seismic tomography, and potential changes in fracture porosity inferred from cross-well pressure responses, are related to shear rupture in the stimulation zone driven by both pressure and cooling effects.

Using coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical (THM) modeling, we evaluated new seismic tomography results associated with stimulation injection at an EGS demonstration project at the northwest Geysers geothermal steam field, California. We studied high resolution seismic tomography images built from data recorded during three time periods: a period of two months prior to injection and during two consecutive one month periods after injection started in October 2011. Our analysis shows that seismic velocity decreases in areas of most intense induced microseismicity and this is also correlated with the spatial distribution of calculated steam pressure changes. A detailed analysis showed that shear wave velocity decreases with pressure in areas where pressure is sufficiently high to cause shear reactivation of pre-existing fractures. The analysis also indicates that cooling in a liquid zone around the injection well contributes to reduced shear wave velocity. A trend of reducing compressional wave velocity with fluid pressure was also found, but at pressures much above the pressure required for shear reactivation. We attribute the reduction in shear wave velocity to softening in the rock mass shear modulus associated with shear dislocations and associated changes in fracture surface properties. Also, as the rock mass become more fractured and more deformable this favors

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