In 2005 in Indonesia, clusters of human infection with clade 2 H5N1 viruses included mild, severe, and fatal cases among family members.

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TOC Summary: This method is time and labor efficient and minimizes potential risk for virus aerosolization.

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BackgroundIndonesia provides the largest single source of pilgrims for the Hajj (10%). In the last two decades, mortality rates for Indonesian pilgrims ranged between 200–380 deaths per 100,000 pilgrims over the 10-week Hajj period. Reasons for high mortality are not well understood. In 2008, verbal autopsy was introduced to complement routine death certificates to explore cause of death diagnoses. This study presents the patterns and causes of death for Indonesian pilgrims, and compares routine death certificates to verbal autopsy findings.MethodsPublic health surveillance was conducted by Indonesian public health authorities accompanying pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, with daily reporting of hospitalizations and deaths. Surveillance data from 2008 were analyzed for timing, geographic location and site of death. Percentages for each cause of death category from death certificates were compared to that from verbal autopsy.ResultsIn 2008, 206,831 Indonesian undertook the Hajj. There were 446 deaths, equivalent to 1,968 deaths per 100,000 pilgrim years. Most pilgrims died in Mecca (68%) and Medinah (24%). There was no statistically discernible difference in the total mortality risk for the two pilgrimage routes (Mecca or Medinah first), but the number of deaths peaked earlier for those traveling to Mecca first (p=0.002). Most deaths were due to cardiovascular (66%) and respiratory (28%) diseases. A greater proportion of deaths were attributed to cardiovascular disease by death certificate compared to the verbal autopsy method (p<0.001). Significantly more deaths had ill-defined cause based on verbal autopsy method (p<0.001).ConclusionsDespite pre-departure health screening and other medical services, Indonesian pilgrim mortality rates were very high. Correct classification of cause of death is critical for the development of risk mitigation strategies. Since verbal autopsy classified causes of death differently to death certificates, further studies are needed to assess the method’s utility in this setting.

BackgroundDisease transmission patterns are needed to inform public health interventions, but remain largely unknown for avian influenza H5N1 virus infections. A recent study on the 139 outbreaks detected in Indonesia between 2005 and 2009 found that the type of exposure to sources of H5N1 virus for both the index case and their household members impacted the risk of additional cases in the household. This study describes the disease transmission patterns in those outbreak households.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe compared cases (n = 177) and contacts (n = 496) in the 113 sporadic and 26 cluster outbreaks detected between July 2005 and July 2009 to estimate attack rates and disease intervals. We used final size household models to fit transmission parameters to data on household size, cases and blood-related household contacts to assess the relative contribution of zoonotic and human-to-human transmission of the virus, as well as the reproduction number for human virus transmission. The overall household attack rate was 18.3% and secondary attack rate was 5.5%. Secondary attack rate remained stable as household size increased. The mean interval between onset of subsequent cases in outbreaks was 5.6 days. The transmission model found that human transmission was very rare, with a reproduction number between 0.1 and 0.25, and the upper confidence bounds below 0.4. Transmission model fit was best when the denominator population was restricted to blood-related household contacts of index cases.Conclusions/SignificanceThe study only found strong support for human transmission of the virus when a single large cluster was included in the transmission model. The reproduction number was well below the threshold for sustained transmission. This study provides baseline information on the transmission dynamics for the current zoonotic virus and can be used to detect and define signatures of a virus with increasing capacity for human-to-human transmission.

Background  Bali Province was affected by avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks in birds in October 2003. Despite ongoing circulation of the virus, no human infection had been identified by December 2005. Objectives  To assess behavioral patterns associated with poultry rearing in Bali, and to identify potential risk factors for H5N1 infection in humans and in household chickens, ducks and pigs. Methods  A behavioral, virological and seroepidemiologic survey in 38 villages and three live bird markets was completed in December 2005. A multi‐stage cluster design was used to select 291 households with 841 participants from all nine districts in Bali. Specimens were collected from participants as well as a maximum of three pigs, chickens and ducks from each household. Eighty‐seven market vendors participated, where specimens were collected from participants as well as chickens and ducks. Results  Twenty out of the 38 villages sampled had H5N1 outbreaks. Despite exposure to H5N1 outbreaks, none of the participants from villages or markets were seropositive for H5N1. None of the pigs tested were positive for H5N1. Virus isolation rate in ducks and chicken in markets was higher than in households. Transport of poultry in or out of villages was a risk factor for outbreaks in household chickens and ducks. Conclusions  The study highlighted that the market chain and associated behaviors may play a role in maintaining the virus in household flocks. The study adds evidence that transmission of H5N1 to humans remains a rare event despite high level handling of both healthy and sick birds.