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[1] This work compares the performance of six bias correction methods for hydrological modeling over 10 North American river basins. Four regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by reanalysis data taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program intercomparison project are used to evaluate the sensitivity of bias correction methods to climate models. The hydrological impacts of bias correction methods are assessed through the comparison of streamflows simulated by a lumped empirical hydrology model (HSAMI) using raw RCM-simulated and bias-corrected precipitation time series. The results show that RCMs are biased in the simulation of precipitation, which results in biased simulated streamflows. All six bias correction methods are capable of improving the RCM-simulated precipitation in the representation of watershed streamflows to a certain degree. However, the performance of hydrological modeling depends on the choice of a bias correction method and the location of a watershed. Moreover, distribution-based methods are consistently better than mean-based methods. A low coherence between the temporal sequences of observed and RCMsimulated (driven by reanalysis data) precipitation was observed over 5 of the 10 watersheds studied. All bias corrections methods fail over these basins due to their inability to specifically correct the temporal structure of daily precipitation occurrence, which is critical for hydrology modeling. In this study, this failure occurred on basins that were distant from the RCM model boundaries and where topography exerted little control over precipitation. These results indicate that bias correction performance is location dependent and that a careful validation should always be performed, especially on studies over new regions.Citation: Chen, J., F. P. Brissette, D. Chaumont, and M. Braun (2013), Finding appropriate bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact studies over North America, Water Resour. Res., 49,[4187][4188][4189][4190][4191][4192][4193][4194][4195][4196][4197][4198][4199][4200][4201][4202][4203][4204][4205]

[1] General circulation models (GCMs) and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (GGES) are generally considered to be the two major sources of uncertainty in quantifying the climate change impacts on hydrology. Other sources of uncertainty have been given less attention. This study considers overall uncertainty by combining results from an ensemble of two GGES, six GCMs, five GCM initial conditions, four downscaling techniques, three hydrological model structures, and 10 sets of hydrological model parameters. Each climate projection is equally weighted to predict the hydrology on a Canadian watershed for the 2081-2100 horizon. The results show that the choice of GCM is consistently a major contributor to uncertainty. However, other sources of uncertainty, such as the choice of a downscaling method and the GCM initial conditions, also have a comparable or even larger uncertainty for some hydrological variables. Uncertainties linked to GGES and the hydrological model structure are somewhat less than those related to GCMs and downscaling techniques. Uncertainty due to the hydrological model parameter selection has the least important contribution among all the variables considered. Overall, this research underlines the importance of adequately covering all sources of uncertainty. A failure to do so may result in moderately to severely biased climate change impact studies. Results further indicate that the major contributors to uncertainty vary depending on the hydrological variables selected, and that the methodology presented in this paper is successful at identifying the key sources of uncertainty to consider for a climate change impact study.Citation: Chen, J., F. P. Brissette, A. Poulin, and R. Leconte (2011), Overall uncertainty study of the hydrological impacts of climate change for a Canadian watershed, Water Resour.

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Abstract. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) recently released its most advanced reanalysis product, the ERA5 dataset. It was designed and generated with methods giving it multiple advantages over the previous release, the ERA-Interim reanalysis product. Notably, it has a finer spatial resolution, is archived at the hourly time step, uses a more advanced assimilation system and includes more sources of data. This paper aims to evaluate the ERA5 reanalysis as a potential reference dataset for hydrological modelling by considering the ERA5 precipitation and temperatures as proxies for observations in the hydrological modelling process, using two lumped hydrological models over 3138 North American catchments. This study shows that ERA5-based hydrological modelling performance is equivalent to using observations over most of North America, with the exception of the eastern half of the US, where observations lead to consistently better performance. ERA5 temperature and precipitation biases are consistently reduced compared to ERA-Interim and systematically more accurate for hydrological modelling. Differences between ERA5, ERA-Interim and observation datasets are mostly linked to precipitation, as temperature only marginally influences the hydrological simulation outcomes.

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The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE) consists of a dynamically downscaled version of the CanESM2 50-member initial-conditions ensemble (CanESM2-LE). The downscaling was performed at 12-km resolution over two domains, Europe (EU) and northeastern North America (NNA), and the simulations extend from 1950 to 2099, following the RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of validation, warm biases are found over the EU and NNA domains during summer, whereas during winter cold and warm biases appear over EU and NNA, respectively. For precipitation, simulations are generally wetter than the observations but slight dry biases also occur in summer. Climate change projections for 2080–99 (relative to 2000–19) show temperature changes reaching 8°C in summer over some parts of Europe, and exceeding 12°C in northern Québec during winter. For precipitation, central Europe will become much dryer during summer (−2 mm day−1) and wetter during winter (>1.2 mm day−1). Similar changes are observed over NNA, although summer drying is not as prominent. Projected changes in temperature interannual variability were also investigated, generally showing increasing and decreasing variability during summer and winter, respectively. Temperature variability is found to increase by more than 70% in some parts of central Europe during summer and to increase by 80% in the northernmost part of Québec during the month of May as the snow cover becomes subject to high year-to-year variability in the future. Finally, CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE are compared with respect to extreme precipitation, showing evidence that the higher resolution of CRCM5-LE allows a more realistic representation of local extremes, especially over coastal and mountainous regions.

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