Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed

Minville, Marie; Brissette, François; Leconte, Robert

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.05.033

Cited by 331 publications

(217 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…In this study, the simplest method change factor or delta change approach was applied. The change factor or delta change method has been used in many earlier climate change impact studies [57][58][59][60][61]. Basically, this approach modifies the observed historical time series of precipitation and is modified by multiplying the ratio of the monthly future and historic precipitations simulated by NCAR CCSM3 (A2, A1b and B1 scenarios), HadCM3 and PRECIS RCM (A2 and B2 scenarios) for each time period.…”

Section: Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

et al. 2013

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This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition) in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs) and a regional circulation model (RCM) consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov) model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change), indirect impact (land use change) and full range of impact (climate and land use change) to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2013, 5 3245 planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

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Section: Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

et al. 2013

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“…Super-ensembles or grand-ensembles, derived from the combination of ensembles from each of several forecast centres, capture NWP uncertainty arising from various sources of model error in addition to initial condition error (Pappenberger et al, 2008). Uncertainty in climate change projections and their impacts on hydrology are also assessed using a multimodel approach, with GCM output from different models incorporating different emissions scenarios (e.g., Minville et al, 2008). Additional uncertainty introduced by interpolation or downscaling methods could also be incorporated into hydrological ensembles by using different downscaling methods to generate an ensemble of meteorological forcings from a single NWP or climate model run or a single set of meteorological observations.…”

Section: Framework For the Anticipation Of Forecast Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications, Approaches and Challenges

2012

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This article examines the current practice of streamflow modelling, a field under development for over a century. A sample of the wide range of assessment and planning applications of streamflow models is presented. The diversity in the use of these models is mirrored in the diversity of model complexity, and modelling approaches ranging from empirical to physically based and from lumped to fully distributed are described with examples. Predictions derived from hydrological models are subject to many sources of error; these are discussed along with methods for error minimization or anticipation. Model error is generally quantified using an ensemble of forecasts meant to sample the range of predictive uncertainty. This ensemble can be used to generate reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities if all sources of error are accounted for. To date, applications of ensemble methods in streamflow forecasting have typically focused on only one or two error sources. A challenge will be to develop ensemble streamflow forecasts that sample a wider range of predictive uncertainty.

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“…from greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate models and their parameterisation, downscaling techniques, bias correction methods, hydrological models structure and parameters), which are unavoidably propagated through the entire modeling chain and further interact with each other (Minville et al 2008;Refsgaard et al 2010). These uncertainties can propagate in a very complex way (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions

et al. 2016

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We investigate simulated hydrological extremes (i.e., high and low flows) under the present and future climatic conditions for five river basins worldwide: the Ganges, Lena, Niger, Rhine, and Tagus. Future projections are based on five GCMs and four emission scenarios. We analyse results from the HYPE, mHM, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 hydrological models calibrated and validated to simulate each river. The use of different impact models and future projections allows for an assessment of the uncertainty of future impacts. The analysis of extremes is conducted for four different time horizons: reference (1981-2010), early-century (2006-2035), mid-century (2036-2065) and end-century (2070-2099). In addition, Sen's non-parametric estimator of slope is used to calculate the magnitude of trend in extremes, whose statistical significance is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. Overall, the impact of climate change is more severe at the end of the century and particularly in dry regions. High flows are generally sensitive to changes in precipitation, however sensitivity varies between the basins. Finally, results show that conclusions in climate change impact Center for Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University, Nanjing, China studies can be highly influenced by uncertainty both in the climate and impact models, whilst the sensitivity to climate modelling uncertainty becoming greater than hydrological model uncertainty in the dry regions.

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Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed

Cited by 331 publications

References 26 publications

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications, Approaches and Challenges

Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions

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