Overall uncertainty study of the hydrological impacts of climate change for a Canadian watershed

Chen, Jie; Brissette, François; Poulin, Annie; Leconte, Robert

doi:10.1029/2011wr010602

Cited by 338 publications

(278 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(82 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

246

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Other uncertainties such as hydrological models were also found to have similar or even larger influences in climate change studies [45][46][47]. Firstly, the applicability of a hydrological model is an important guarantee in these studies.…”

Section: Limitation Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 90%

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Songhua River Basin

Zhang

2016

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The Songhua River Basin (SRB) in Northeast China is one of the areas most sensitive to global climate change because of its high-latitude location. In this study, we conducted a modeling assessment on the potential change of water resources in this region for the coming three decades using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, we calibrated and validated the model with historical streamflow records in this basin. Then, we applied the calibrated model for the period from 2020 to 2049 with the projected and downscaled climatic data under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study results show: (1) The SWAT model performed very well for both the calibration and validation periods in the SRB; (2) The projected temperatures showed a steady, significant increase across the SRB under both scenarios, especially in two sub-basins, the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) and the Lower SRB (LSRB). With regard to precipitation, both scenarios showed a decreasing trend in the NRB and LSRB but an increasing trend in the Upper Songhua River Basin (USRB); and (3), generally, the hydrologic modeling suggested a decreasing trend of streamflow for 2020-2049. Compared to baseline conditions , the streamflow in the NRB and LSRB would decrease by 20.3%-37.8%, while streamflow in the USRB would experience an increase of 9.68%-17.7%. These findings provide relevant insights into future surface water resources, and such information can be helpful for resource managers and policymakers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies in the face of climate change.

show abstract

Section: Limitation Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 90%

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Songhua River Basin

Zhang

2016

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Neither is hydrological model parameter or structural uncertainty, although these are generally smaller than climate modelling uncertainty (e.g. Chen et al 2011, Gosling et al 2011, Thompson et al 2013. Similarly, uncertainty in flood frequency curve fitting is not included, but likely to have a relatively small effect on the percentage changes derived, at least for lower return periods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces I: England and Wales

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The impacts of climate change on hydrology are an important focus of research around the world, but use of large ensembles to drive impact models is not necessarily straightforward and has to be re-done when new projections are released. Here an alternative sensitivity framework approach is demonstrated, using a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). These projections comprise sets of 10,000 changes in a number of variables, available for 10 river-basin regions covering England and Wales. Estimates of the potential range of impacts on 20-year return period flood peaks are presented for different types of catchment in each region. Regional average impact ranges are compared for a number of time-horizons and emissions scenarios. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. South-East England has the highest impacts with the greatest uncertainty range, while the Dee region has the lowest impacts and smallest uncertainty range. Regional differences are due to both spatial differences in projections and a differing regional balance in the number of catchments of each type. Ease of application of multiple projections is a clear advantage of this sensitivity-based approach to impact assessment, which could be extended to other regions and sectors.

show abstract

“…This highlights the impact of potential 5 misleading conclusions if only one climate model were to be used for the impact assessments. The large uncertainty driven by the GCMs in relation to the hydrological impacts of climate change has been reported in many previous studies (Kay et al, 2009;Prudhomme and Davies, 2009;Chen et al, 2011;Teng et al, 2012;Wu et al, 2014. It is worth noting that although the projected ranges of P and PET show large variability in various GCMs, most project a consistent change (i.e.…”

Section: Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 98%

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

Wu¹,

Hu²,

Huang³

et al. 2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the 10 alteration of the temporal-spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term water budget data and climate projections from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.2 to 3.3) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.3 to -0.2) across China. The P 15 elasticity is larger in northeast and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960-2012, the climate contribution to R ranges from -2.4 % a -1 to 3.3 % a -1 across China, with the negative contribution in the North China plain and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the southwest. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty 20 involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071-2100, the mean annual P will likely increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET will likely increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China will likely become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971-2000).25

show abstract

Overall uncertainty study of the hydrological impacts of climate change for a Canadian watershed

Cited by 338 publications

References 40 publications

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Songhua River Basin

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Songhua River Basin

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces I: England and Wales

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About