For the first time in history, on March 17, 2020, the European Union closed all its external borders in an attempt to contain the spreading of the coronavirus 2019, COVID-19. Throughout two past months, governments around the world have implemented massive travel restrictions and border control to mitigate the outbreak of this global pandemic. However, the precise effects of travel restrictions on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 remain unknown. Here we combine a global network mobility model with a local epidemiology model to simulate and predict the outbreak dynamics and outbreak control of COVID-19 across Europe. We correlate our mobility model to passenger air travel statistics and calibrate our epidemiology model using the number of reported COVID-19 cases for each country. Our simulations show that mobility networks of air travel can predict the emerging global diffusion pattern of a pandemic at the early stages of the outbreak. Our results suggest that an unconstrained mobility would have significantly accelerated the spreading of COVID-19, especially in Central Europe, Spain, and France. Ultimately, our network epidemiology model can inform political decision making and help identify exit strategies from current travel restrictions and total lockdown. ARTICLE HISTORY

For the first time in history, on March 17,2020, the European Union closed all its external borders to contain the spreading of the coronavirus 2019, COVID-19. Throughout two past months, governments around the world have implemented massive travel restrictions and border control to mitigate the outbreak of this global pandemic. However, the precise effects of travel restrictions on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 remain unknown. Here we combine a global network mobility model with a local epidemiology model to simulate and predict the outbreak dynamics and outbreak control of COVID-19 across Europe. We correlate our mobility model to passenger air travel statistics and calibrate our epidemiology model using the number of reported COVID-19 cases for each country. Our simulations show that mobility networks of air travel can predict the emerging global diffusion pattern of a pandemic at the early stages of the outbreak. Our results suggest that an unconstrained mobility would have significantly accelerated the spreading of COVID-19, especially in Central Europe, Spain, and France. Ultimately, our network epidemiology model can inform political decision making and help identify exit strategies from current travel restrictions and total lockdown.

A critical procedure in diagnosing atrial fibrillation is the creation of electro-anatomic activation maps. Current methods generate these mappings from interpolation using a few sparse data points recorded inside the atria; they neither include prior knowledge of the underlying physics nor uncertainty of these recordings. Here we propose a physics-informed neural network for cardiac activation mapping that accounts for the underlying wave propagation dynamics and we quantify the epistemic uncertainty associated with these predictions. These uncertainty estimates not only allow us to quantify the predictive error of the neural network, but also help to reduce it by judiciously selecting new informative measurement locations via active learning. We illustrate the potential of our approach using a synthetic benchmark problem and a personalized electrophysiology model of the left atrium. We show that our new method outperforms linear interpolation and Gaussian process regression for the benchmark problem and linear interpolation at clinical densities for the left atrium. In both cases, the active learning algorithm achieves lower error levels than random allocation. Our findings open the door toward physics-based electro-anatomic mapping with the ultimate goals to reduce procedural time and improve diagnostic predictability for patients affected by atrial fibrillation. Open source code is available at https://github.com/fsahli/EikonalNet.

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, a global pandemic. In an unprecedented collective effort, massive amounts of data are now being collected worldwide to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of this pandemic on the health system and the global economy. However, the precise timeline of the disease, its transmissibility, and the effect of mitigation strategies remain incompletely understood. Here we integrate a global network model with a local epidemic SEIR model to quantify the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States. For the outbreak in China, in n = 30 provinces, we found a latent period of 2.56 ± 0.72 days, a contact period of 1.47 ± 0.32 days, and an infectious period of 17.82 ± 2.95 days. We postulate that the latent and infectious periods are disease-specific, whereas the contact period is behavior-specific and can vary between different provinces, states, or countries. For the early stages of the outbreak in the United States, in n = 50 states, we adopted the disease-specific values from China and found a contact period of 3.38 ± 0.69 days. Our network model predicts that-without the massive political mitigation strategies that are in place todaythe United States would have faced a basic reproduction number of 5.30 ± 0.95 and a nationwide peak of the outbreak on May 10, 2020 with 3 million infections. Our results demonstrate how mathematical modeling can help estimate outbreak dynamics and provide decision guidelines for successful outbreak control. We anticipate that our model will become a valuable tool to estimate the potential of vaccination and quantify the effect of relaxing political measures including total lockdown, shelter in place, and travel restrictions for low-risk subgroups of the population or for the population as a whole.

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, a global pandemic. In an unprecedented collective effort, massive amounts of data are now being collected worldwide to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of this pandemic on the health system and the global economy. However, the precise timeline of the disease, its transmissibility, and the effect of mitigation strategies remain incompletely understood. Here we integrate a global network model with a local epidemic SEIR model to quantify the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States. For the outbreak in China, in n = 30 provinces, we found a latent period of 2.56±0.72 days, a contact period of 1.47±0.32 days, and an infectious period of 17.82±2.95 days. We postulate that the latent and infectious periods are disease-specific, whereas the contact period is behavior-specific and can vary between different provinces, states, or countries. For the early stages of the outbreak in the United States, in n = 50 states, we adopted the disease-specific values from China, and found a contact period of 3.38±0.69 days. Our network model predicts that-without the massive political mitigation strategies that are in place today-the United states would have faced a basic reproduction number of 5.3±0.95 and a nationwide peak of the outbreak

The Purkinje network is an integral part of the excitation system in the human heart. Yet, to date, there is no in vivo imaging technique to accurately reconstruct its geometry and structure. Computational modeling of the Purkinje network is increasingly recognized as an alternative strategy to visualize, simulate, and understand the role of the Purkinje system. However, most computational models either have to be generated manually, or fail to smoothly cover the irregular surfaces inside the left and right ventricles. Here we present a new algorithm to reliably create robust Purkinje networks within the human heart. We made the source code of this algorithm freely available online. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the fractal tree algorithm with our new projection method generates denser and more compact Purkinje networks than previous approaches on irregular surfaces. Under similar conditions, our algorithm generates a network with 1219 ± 61 branches, three times more than a conventional algorithm with 419 ± 107 branches. With a coverage of 11 ± 3 mm, the surface density of our new Purkije network is twice as dense as the conventional network with 22 ± 7 mm. To demonstrate the importance of a dense Purkinje network in cardiac electrophysiology, we simulated three cases of excitation: with our new Purkinje network, with left-sided Purkinje network, and without Purkinje network. Simulations with our new Purkinje network predicted more realistic activation sequences and activation times than simulations without. Six-lead electrocardiograms of the three case studies agreed with the clinical electrocardiograms under physiological conditions, under pathological conditions of right bundle branch block, and under pathological conditions of trifascicular block. Taken together, our results underpin the importance of the Purkinje network in realistic human heart simulations. Human heart modeling has the potential to support the design of personalized strategies for single- or bi-ventricular pacing, radiofrequency ablation, and cardiac defibrillation with the common goal to restore a normal heart rhythm.

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Drugs often have undesired side effects. In the heart, they can induce lethal arrhythmias such as torsades de pointes. The risk evaluation of a new compound is costly and can take a long time, which often hinders the development of new drugs. Here, we establish a high-resolution, multiscale computational model to quickly assess the cardiac toxicity of new and existing drugs. The input of the model is the drug-specific current block from single cell electrophysiology; the output is the spatio-temporal activation profile and the associated electrocardiogram. We demonstrate the potential of our model for a low-risk drug, ranolazine, and a high-risk drug, quinidine: For ranolazine, our model predicts a prolonged QT interval of 19.4% compared with baseline and a regular sinus rhythm at 60.15 beats per minute. For quinidine, our model predicts a prolonged QT interval of 78.4% and a spontaneous development of torsades de pointes both in the activation profile and in the electrocardiogram. Our model reveals the mechanisms by which electrophysiological abnormalities propagate across the spatio-temporal scales, from specific channel blockage, via altered single cell action potentials and prolonged QT intervals, to the spontaneous emergence of ventricular tachycardia in the form of torsades de pointes. Our model could have important implications for researchers, regulatory agencies, and pharmaceutical companies on rationalizing safe drug development and reducing the time-to-market of new drugs.