Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe and the effect of travel restrictions

Linka, Kevin; Peirlinck, Mathias; Costabal, Francisco Sahli; Kuhl, Ellen

doi:10.1101/2020.04.18.20071035

Cited by 111 publications

(155 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(22 reference statements)

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“…The constant reproduction number in Figure 1, left, nicely captures the exponential increase at the early stages of the outbreak, but fails to "bend the curve" before herd immunity occurs. Nonetheless, several recent studies have successfully used an SEIR model with a constant reproduction number to model the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China [35] and in Europe [28] by explicitly reducing the total population N to an affected population N * = η N. The scaling coefficient η = N * /N is essentially a fitting parameter that indirectly quantifies the level of confinement [3]. For example, when averaged over 30 Chinese provinces, the mean affected population was η = 5.19 · 10 −5 ± 2.23 ± 10 −4 , suggesting that the effect of COVID-19 was confined to only a very small fraction of the total population [35].…”

Section: The Time-varying Effective Reproduction Number Reflects Thementioning

confidence: 99%

The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions

Linka

Peirlinck

Kuhl

2020

Preprint

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Throughout the past four months, no number has dominated the public media more persistently than the reproduction number of COVID-19. This powerful but simple concept is widely used by the public media, scientists, and political decision makers to explain and justify political strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we explore the effectiveness of political interventions using the reproduction number of COVID-19 across Europe. We propose a dynamic SEIR epidemiology model with a time-varying reproduction number, which we identify using machine learning and uncertainty quantification. During the early outbreak, the reproduction number was 4.5±21.4, with maximum values of 6.5 and 5.9 in Spain and France. As of today, it has dropped to 0.7±20.2, with minimum values of 0.4 and 0.3 in Austria and France. We found a strong correlation between passenger air travel and the reproduction number with a time delay of 12.6±22.7 days. Our new dynamic SEIR model provides the flexibility to simulate various outbreak control and exit strategies to inform political decision making and identify safe solutions in the benefit of global health.

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Section: The Time-varying Effective Reproduction Number Reflects Thementioning

confidence: 99%

The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions

Linka

Peirlinck

Kuhl

2020

Preprint

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“…International travel has already been shown to play a central role in the spreading of COVID-19 and international MGs like the Hajj or Umrah, if maintained may well have contributed to the globalization of SARS-CoV-2 through returned participants. [ 49 – 51 ]. A few cases of COVID-19 occurred in Umrah pilgrims before international travel was banned.…”

Section: The Risk For Covid-19 Among Hajj and Umrah Pilgrimsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hajj and Umrah Mass Gatherings and COVID-19 Infection

et al. 2020

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Purpose of Review We discuss the risk of COVID-19 in religious mass gathering events including Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages. Recent Findings The risk of transmission of respiratory viruses including COVID-19 is particularly high due to the overcrowding conditions at the Hajj and Umrah. The profile of the Hajj pilgrims who tend to be older and with multiple comorbidities corresponds to that of individuals at risk for severe COVID-19. In order to avoid a COVID-19 outbreak with potential spreading to many countries through returning pilgrims, Saudi Arabia suspended the Umrah, and access to the 2020 Hajj was very limited. Summary A clear relation between early suspension of religious mass gatherings and lower occurrence of COVID-19 transmission in countries that took such measures promptly was noticed. There are lessons to national and international health organizations for other mass gatherings in the context of the pandemic.

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“…Since its outbreak in late 2019 across China(1,2), the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread across the continents owing to its high transmissibility(3) and increased global mobility with a potentially delayed travel ban in Wuhan, China. ( 4 ) With subsequent global spread, it was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 and climatic factors: A global analysis

Islam

Bukhari

Jameel

et al. 2021

Environmental Research

104

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Background:It is unknown if COVID-19 will exhibit seasonal pattern as other diseases e.g., seasonal influenza. Similarly, some environmental factors (e.g., temperature, humidity) have been shown to be associated with transmission of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, but global data on their association with COVID-19 are scarce.Objective: To examine the association between climatic factors and COVID-19.Methods: We used multilevel mixed-effects (two-level random-intercepts) negative binomial regression models to examine the association between 7- and 14-day-lagged temperature, humidity (relative and absolute), wind speed and UV index and COVID-19 cases, adjusting for Gross Domestic Products, Global Health Security Index, cloud cover (%), precipitation (mm), sea-level air-pressure (mb), and daytime length. The effects estimates are reported as adjusted rate ratio (aRR) and their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI).Results: Data from 206 countries (until April 20, 2020) with ≥100 reported cases each showed no association between COVID-19 cases and 7-day-lagged temperature, relative humidity, UV index, and wind speed, after adjusting for potential confounders, but a positive association with 14-day-lagged temperature and a negative association with 14-day-lagged wind speed. Compared to an absolute humidity <5g/m 3 , an absolute humidity of 5-10g/m 3 was associated with a 23% (95% CI:6-42%) higher rate of COVID-19 cases, while absolute humidity >10g/m 3 did not have a significant effect. These findings were robust in the 14-day-lagged analysis.Conclusion: Our results of higher COVID-19 cases (through April 20) at absolute humidity of 5-10g/m 3 may be suggestive of a ‘sweet point’ for viral transmission, however only controlled laboratory experiments can decisively prove it.

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Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe and the effect of travel restrictions

Cited by 111 publications

References 19 publications

The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions

The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions

Hajj and Umrah Mass Gatherings and COVID-19 Infection

COVID-19 and climatic factors: A global analysis

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