2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.18.20071035
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Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe and the effect of travel restrictions

Abstract: For the first time in history, on March 17,2020, the European Union closed all its external borders to contain the spreading of the coronavirus 2019, COVID-19. Throughout two past months, governments around the world have implemented massive travel restrictions and border control to mitigate the outbreak of this global pandemic. However, the precise effects of travel restrictions on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 remain unknown. Here we combine a global network mobility model with a local epidemiology model… Show more

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Cited by 107 publications
(154 citation statements)
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References 19 publications
(22 reference statements)
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“…The constant reproduction number in Figure 1, left, nicely captures the exponential increase at the early stages of the outbreak, but fails to "bend the curve" before herd immunity occurs. Nonetheless, several recent studies have successfully used an SEIR model with a constant reproduction number to model the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China [35] and in Europe [28] by explicitly reducing the total population N to an affected population N * = η N. The scaling coefficient η = N * /N is essentially a fitting parameter that indirectly quantifies the level of confinement [3]. For example, when averaged over 30 Chinese provinces, the mean affected population was η = 5.19 · 10 −5 ± 2.23 ± 10 −4 , suggesting that the effect of COVID-19 was confined to only a very small fraction of the total population [35].…”
Section: The Time-varying Effective Reproduction Number Reflects Thementioning
confidence: 99%
“…The constant reproduction number in Figure 1, left, nicely captures the exponential increase at the early stages of the outbreak, but fails to "bend the curve" before herd immunity occurs. Nonetheless, several recent studies have successfully used an SEIR model with a constant reproduction number to model the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China [35] and in Europe [28] by explicitly reducing the total population N to an affected population N * = η N. The scaling coefficient η = N * /N is essentially a fitting parameter that indirectly quantifies the level of confinement [3]. For example, when averaged over 30 Chinese provinces, the mean affected population was η = 5.19 · 10 −5 ± 2.23 ± 10 −4 , suggesting that the effect of COVID-19 was confined to only a very small fraction of the total population [35].…”
Section: The Time-varying Effective Reproduction Number Reflects Thementioning
confidence: 99%
“…International travel has already been shown to play a central role in the spreading of COVID-19 and international MGs like the Hajj or Umrah, if maintained may well have contributed to the globalization of SARS-CoV-2 through returned participants. [ 49 51 ]. A few cases of COVID-19 occurred in Umrah pilgrims before international travel was banned.…”
Section: The Risk For Covid-19 Among Hajj and Umrah Pilgrimsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Since its outbreak in late 2019 across China(1,2), the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread across the continents owing to its high transmissibility(3) and increased global mobility with a potentially delayed travel ban in Wuhan, China. ( 4 ) With subsequent global spread, it was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%