2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.06.20055863
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Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States

Abstract: On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, a global pandemic. In an unprecedented collective effort, massive amounts of data are now being collected worldwide to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of this pandemic on the health system and the global economy. However, the precise timeline of the disease, its transmissibility, and the effect of mitigation strategies remain incompletely understood. Here we integrate a global network model with a loca… Show more

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Cited by 69 publications
(106 citation statements)
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“…Altogether we identify three parameters for 27 countries, the basic reproduction number R 0 = C/B, the initial community spread ρ = E 0 /I 0 , and the affected population η = N * /N using the Levenberg-Marquardt method of least squares. For the indentified parameters, we compare two COVID-19 outbreak scenarios: outbreak dynamics with the current travel restrictions, a mobility coefficient of ϑ = 0.00, and a country-specific outbreak on day d 0 , the day at which 0.001% of the population is reported as infected; and outbreak dynamics without travel restrictions, with a mobility coefficient of ϑ = 0.43 (Peirlinck et al 2020), and a European outbreak on day d 0 in Italy, the first country in which 0.001% of the population is reported as infected (Johns Hopkins University 2020). Figure 1 shows the basic reproduction number R 0 = C/B, the initial community spread ρ = E 0 /I 0 , and the affected population η = N * /N across all 27 countries of the European Union.…”
Section: Parameter Identificationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Altogether we identify three parameters for 27 countries, the basic reproduction number R 0 = C/B, the initial community spread ρ = E 0 /I 0 , and the affected population η = N * /N using the Levenberg-Marquardt method of least squares. For the indentified parameters, we compare two COVID-19 outbreak scenarios: outbreak dynamics with the current travel restrictions, a mobility coefficient of ϑ = 0.00, and a country-specific outbreak on day d 0 , the day at which 0.001% of the population is reported as infected; and outbreak dynamics without travel restrictions, with a mobility coefficient of ϑ = 0.43 (Peirlinck et al 2020), and a European outbreak on day d 0 in Italy, the first country in which 0.001% of the population is reported as infected (Johns Hopkins University 2020). Figure 1 shows the basic reproduction number R 0 = C/B, the initial community spread ρ = E 0 /I 0 , and the affected population η = N * /N across all 27 countries of the European Union.…”
Section: Parameter Identificationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Mondal and Ghosh (2020) studied the scenarios of the exponential and sigmoid growth of COVID-19 total cases data for 15 states of India considering a initial exponential growth and a extrapolation with a sigmoid-type profile. Peirlinck et al (2020) estimated to the United States the nationwide peak of the outbreak on May 10, 2020 with 3 million infections across the United States.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In our study, we utilized their work and conducted our model in a worldwide scale. On April, 2020, Mathias Peirlinck et al [11], used the global network model with the local SEIR model to estimate the outbreak dynamics both in China and the United States, the prior distributions in China, including latent period, contact period and infectious period were used to generate posterior distributions in the United States. The precise timelines and reproductive number were estimated based on these mentioned distributions in areas of China and the United States.…”
Section: Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%