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Turkey is a key country in order to realize the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) due to its geographical location. However, as the main transit country within the SGC, Turkey could potentially exert market power with gas transits. Whether Turkey exerts market power or not, is crucial for an economic assessment of the SGC. Hence, the article investigates this issue quantitatively using a global partial equilibrium gas market model. An oligopolistic and a competitive supply structure in Europe in 2030 are considered in the model. If the European gas market in 2030 is characterized by an oligopolistic supply, Turkey is able to exert market power resulting in higher prices compared to competitive transits, in particular in South Eastern Europe. In a competitive market structure, however, the importance of the SGC and thus the potential of Turkish transit market power is limited.

PrefaceAcademic collaboration is arguably most successful when different skills are brought together to address a research question which overlaps core areas of competency in an even manner. If the chemistry of the combined team works well, the results are truly synergistic. In such a spirit, this paper brings together findings from previous leading edge OIES research on European gas hub price correlation by Beatrice Petrovich with demonstrated excellence in European gas transmission system modelling by Harald Hecking and Florian Weiser at ewi Energy Research and Scenarios at the EWI Institute in Cologne.The paper compares the evidence for periodic bottlenecks in Europe's gas transmission systems, indicated by price correlation de-linkage -and supporting evidence of apparent physical or contractual flow constraints -with the results obtained by 're-running history' using the EWI TIGER model. The modelled view of history presumes 'perfect market' behaviour in respect of agents making the best use of infrastructure ('lowest cost' objective function) to move gas from A to B given data on tariff costs.A 'tidy' confirmation that modelled and actual flows were broadly in line would have been welcomed by those regulatory bodies tasked with achieving the Gas Target Model. The findings of this paper suggest that much more work is necessary to ensure that: critical route capacities are increased, capacities each side of specific interconnector points are better harmonised and that capacity held under long term contracts is made available on a shorter time horizon. The forensic investigation contained in this paper is to be highly commended and is an excellent starting point for regulatory bodies. This is far from merely an interesting academic study. Europe's gas flow patterns will markedly change over the next ten years as domestic production declines, leaving a growing import requirement to be met by the imminent surge of global LNG supply and/or Russian pipeline gas. The 'problem areas' of linkage between North and Southern France and the corridors between Germany and Italy via Austria and Switzerland, complicated by new flows to Ukraine, will need to achieve a robust level of responsiveness in this timescale. This paper provides both a timely reminder of the work required and an excellent indication of where such work should be focussed.

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