An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe

Hecking, Harald; John, Christopher; Weiser, Florian

doi:10.1007/s12398-014-0145-9

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Several model-based studies investigated the effects of a potential disruption of Russian exports to Europe in the short and in the long run , Hecking et al 2014, ENTSO-G 2014a. They found that the largest negative effects occur in Eastern Europe -albeit smaller than they would have been a few years ago thanks to the starting deployment of reverse flow capacities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The difficult geopolitical situation with Russia that was triggered by the conflict over Crimea and Ukraine has cast doubts about the reliability of the Russian natural gas exports to Europe. Several 2014 analyses of the supply situation showed that European supplies -that rely on domestic production as well as on imports from various sources -are diversified enough to sustain a disruption of Russian exports in the short and in the long run , Hecking et al 2014, ENTSO-G 2014a.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shaking Dutch Grounds Won't Shatter the European Gas Market

et al. 2015

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The Netherlands have been a pivotal supplier in Western European natural gas markets in the last decades. Recent analyses show that the Netherlands would play an important role in replacing Russian supplies in Germany and France in case of Russian export disruption . However, the Netherlands have suffered from regular earthquakes in recent years that are related to the natural gas production in the major Groningen field. Natural gas production rates -that are politically mandated in the Netherlands -have consequently been substantially reduced, with an estimated annual production 30% below the 2013 level. We implement a realistically low production path for the next decades in the Global Gas Model and analyze the geopolitical impacts. We find that the diversification of the European natural gas imports allows spreading the replacement of Dutch gas over many alternative sources, with diverse pipeline and LNG supplies. There will be hardly any price or demand reduction effect. Even if Russia fails to supply Europe, the additional impact of the lower Dutch production is moderate. Again, alternative suppliers from various sources are able to replace the Dutch volumes. Hence, the European consumers need not to worry about the declining Dutch natural gas production and their security of supplies. Terms of use: Documents in

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shaking Dutch Grounds Won't Shatter the European Gas Market

et al. 2015

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“…For natural gas, the SoS literature mainly deals with geopolitical issues such as gas disputes, etc. [11][12][13][14][15]. By contrast, this paper sheds light on the local security of gas supply in the German gas grid.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Consequently, the fixed injection and withdrawal rates to and from storages would be shocked by higher demand and the flexibility of the pipeline system could be evaluated in a non-anticipative environment (cf. [14,15]). Finally, the model simplifies gas flows and neglects the physics of gas transportation, e.g., line packing that could be covered by modeling the Weymouth equation.…”

Section: Limitations Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach

2019

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This study aims to investigate the possible congestion in the German natural gas system, which may arise due to an increase in the gas consumption in the power sector in extreme weather events. For this purpose, we develop a two-stage approach to couple an electricity model and a natural gas network model. In this approach, we model the electricity system in the first stage to determine the gas demand in the power sector. We then use the calculated gas demand to model gas networks in the second stage, where we deploy a newly developed gas network model. As a case study, we primarily evaluate our methodological approach by re-simulating the cold weather event in 2012, which is seen as an extreme situation for the gas grids, challenging the security of supply. Accordingly, we use our coupled model to investigate potential congestion in the natural gas networks for the year 2030, using a scenario of a sustainable energy transition, where an increase in the gas consumption in the power industry is likely. Results for 2030 show a 51% increase in yearly gas demand in the power industry compared to 2012. Further, the simulation results show a gas supply interruption in two nodes in 2012. In 2030, the same nodes may face an (partial) interruption of gas supply in cold winter days such as the 6th of February 2012. In this day, the load shedding in the natural gas networks can increase up to 19 GWh th in 2030. We also argue that the interrupted electricity production, due to local gas interruptions, can easily be compensated by other power plants. However, these local gas interruptions may endanger the local heat production.

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“…Recent research and simulations on possible NG disruptions from important suppliers in the EU suggest that LNG terminals play an important role in the security of supply and diversification [82,83]. For this reason, the EU is now better prepared for a Russian NG supply disruption, and Russia would be more affected due to the loss of revenue for Gazprom [84,85]. In a hypothetical disruption of Russian NG via Ukraine in 2015, only Ukraine would be significantly affected, as its natural gas consumption would be reduced by approximately 50%.…”

Section: Security Of Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Liquefied natural gas: Could it be a reliable option for road freight transport in the EU?

Osorio-Tejada

Llera‐Sastresa

Scarpellini

2017

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

124

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Approximately one-quarter of the total greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Europe can be attributed to the transport sector, with petroleum-derived fuels dominating road transport. In the current environmental and economic context, the use of less polluting alternative fuels simultaneously providing security of supply and optimal energy storage is encouraged. Natural gas (NG) technology for transportation is mature and extended through the use of the compressed form in urban and light vehicles. The introduction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could broaden the use of natural gas for longer distances due to its higher energy density. In addition, the use of LNG in heavy-duty vehicles reduces the GHG emissions per kilometer by up to 20% and eliminates almost 100% of the sulfur oxides and particulate matter while also reducing the noise in inner cities compared with the use of diesel trucks. This paper reviews the key environmental, technical and socioeconomic aspects of LNG deployment as alternative fuel for road freight transport. Although it is necessary to continue research to develop a reliable database to estimate the actual environmental impact of LNG, the main difficulties for its deployment are market-related. From this market perspective, the prospects for LNG introduction in the European scenario have also been analyzed. Ensuring price stability and reducing uncertainty for investments are keys. Steps taken to date for developing an open and transparent international NG market are paving the way. In addition, the installation of new LNG terminals would significantly contribute to the security of supply and meeting diversification targets. Finally, some projections for the LNG implementation in the Spanish road freight transport are introduced, concluding that the fuel switch in long-haul trucks could reduce GHG emissions by 12% and diesel fuel consumption by 42% in the long term.

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An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe

Cited by 10 publications

References 8 publications

Shaking Dutch Grounds Won't Shatter the European Gas Market

Shaking Dutch Grounds Won't Shatter the European Gas Market

Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach

Liquefied natural gas: Could it be a reliable option for road freight transport in the EU?

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