European gas grid through the eye of the TIGER

Abstract

PrefaceAcademic collaboration is arguably most successful when different skills are brought together to address a research question which overlaps core areas of competency in an even manner. If the chemistry of the combined team works well, the results are truly synergistic. In such a spirit, this paper brings together findings from previous leading edge OIES research on European gas hub price correlation by Beatrice Petrovich with demonstrated excellence in European gas transmission system modelling by Harald Hecking and Florian Weiser at ewi Energy Research and Scenarios at the EWI Institute in Cologne.The paper compares the evidence for periodic bottlenecks in Europe's gas transmission systems, indicated by price correlation de-linkage -and supporting evidence of apparent physical or contractual flow constraints -with the results obtained by 're-running history' using the EWI TIGER model. The modelled view of history presumes 'perfect market' behaviour in respect of agents making the best use of infrastructure ('lowest cost' objective function) to move gas from A to B given data on tariff costs.A 'tidy' confirmation that modelled and actual flows were broadly in line would have been welcomed by those regulatory bodies tasked with achieving the Gas Target Model. The findings of this paper suggest that much more work is necessary to ensure that: critical route capacities are increased, capacities each side of specific interconnector points are better harmonised and that capacity held under long term contracts is made available on a shorter time horizon. The forensic investigation contained in this paper is to be highly commended and is an excellent starting point for regulatory bodies. This is far from merely an interesting academic study. Europe's gas flow patterns will markedly change over the next ten years as domestic production declines, leaving a growing import requirement to be met by the imminent surge of global LNG supply and/or Russian pipeline gas. The 'problem areas' of linkage between North and Southern France and the corridors between Germany and Italy via Austria and Switzerland, complicated by new flows to Ukraine, will need to achieve a robust level of responsiveness in this timescale. This paper provides both a timely reminder of the work required and an excellent indication of where such work should be focussed.

Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market

“…While these models must rely on the assumption of perfectly competitive market operation, they benefit from the use of optimization solvers that allow for the incorporation of a high level of spatial and temporal resolution as well as more detailed representation of complex gas infrastructure (e.g. Dieckhöner 2012;Eser et al 2019;Kiss et al 2016;Neumann et al 2011;Petrovich et al 2016;Weigt and Abrell 2016).…”

Planning natural gas networks and storage in emerging countries – an application to Brazil

“…32–34 However, usually these scientific works did not consider the UGS role for optimizing the network planning and operation, in their modeling exercise from the start. For instance, Petrovich and Rogers 35 modeled natural networks and aimed to find bottlenecks, but did not consider applying UGS to solve these bottlenecks, while Szoplik and Stelmasinska 36 modeled a network in Poland considering LNG storage and biogas supply, but simply not indicating the UGS option. In South America, Chávez-Rodríguez et al 37 used TIMES tool to develop a simplified natural gas network model for the Southern Cone countries but did not focused on UGS.…”