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MSC: 62M10 62M20 62P25Keywords: Forecasting models Emergency department Optimization Health costs a b s t r a c tThe unpredictability of arrivals to the Emergency Department (ED) of a hospital is a great concern of the management. The existence of more complex pathologies and the increase in life expectancy originate a higher rate of hospitalization. The hospitalization of patients via ED upsets previously programmed services and some cancellations may occur. The Hospital's ability to predict turnout variations in the arrivals to the ED is fundamental to the management of the human resources and the required number of beds.Braga Hospital, in Portugal, is the subject of this work. Data for ED arrivals in 2 years (2012)(2013), the test period, was studied and forecasting models based on time series were built. The models were then tested against the real data from the evaluation period (2014). These models are of ARIMA (AutoRegressive-Integrated-Moving Average) type, used software was the Forecast Pro.
Information systems outsourcing risks are a vital component in the decision and management process associated to the provision of information systems and technology services by a provider to a customer. Although there is a rich literature on information systems outsourcing risks, the accumulated knowledge on this area is fragmented. In view of this situation, an argument is put forward on the usefulness of having a theory that integrates the various constructs related to information systems outsourcing risks. This study aims to contribute towards the synthesis of that theory, by proposing a conceptual framework for interpreting the literature and presenting a catalog of information systems outsourcing risks. The conceptual framework articulates together six key risk elements, namely dangers, negative outcomes, undesirable consequences, factors and mitigation actions. The catalog condenses and categorizes the information systems outsourcing risk elements found on the literature reviewed, both from the perspective of the outsourcing customer and from the perspective of the outsourcing provider. Proposals for subsequent work towards the generation of the theory of information systems outsourcing risk are suggested.
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