Spotting ignition by lofted firebrands is a significant mechanism of fire spread, as observed in many large-scale fires. The role of firebrands in fire propagation and the important parameters involved in spot fire development are studied. Historical large-scale fires, including wind-driven urban and wildland conflagrations and post-earthquake fires are given as examples. In addition, research on firebrand behaviour is reviewed. The phenomenon of spotting fires comprises three sequential mechanisms: generation, transport and ignition of recipient fuel. In order to understand these mechanisms, many experiments have been performed, such as measuring drag on firebrands, analysing the flow fields of flame and plume structures, collecting firebrands from burning materials, houses and wildfires, and observing firebrand burning characteristics in wind tunnels under the terminal velocity condition and ignition characteristics of fuel beds. The knowledge obtained from the experiments was used to develop firebrand models. Since Tarifa developed a firebrand model based on the terminal velocity approximation, many firebrand transport models have been developed to predict maximum spot fire distance. Combustion models of a firebrand were developed empirically and the maximum spot fire distance was found at the burnout limit. Recommendations for future research and development are provided.

We present a multiscale study examining the impact of a regional exchange of nuclear weapons on global climate. Our models investigate multiple phases of the effects of nuclear weapons usage, including growth and rise of the nuclear fireball, ignition and spread of the induced firestorm, and comprehensive Earth system modeling of the oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. This study follows from the scenario originally envisioned by Robock, Oman, Stenchikov, et al. (2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2003-2007), based on the analysis of Toon et al. (2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-1973-2007), which assumes a regional exchange between India and Pakistan of fifty 15 kt weapons detonated by each side. We expand this scenario by modeling the processes that lead to production of black carbon, in order to refine the black carbon forcing estimates of these previous studies. When the Earth system model is initiated with 5 × 109 kg of black carbon in the upper troposphere (approximately from 9 to 13 km), the impact on climate variables such as global temperature and precipitation in our simulations is similar to that predicted by previously published work. However, while our thorough simulations of the firestorm produce about 3.7 × 109 kg of black carbon, we find that the vast majority of the black carbon never reaches an altitude above weather systems (approximately 12 km). Therefore, our Earth system model simulations conducted with model‐informed atmospheric distributions of black carbon produce significantly lower global climatic impacts than assessed in prior studies, as the carbon at lower altitudes is more quickly removed from the atmosphere. In addition, our model ensembles indicate that statistically significant effects on global surface temperatures are limited to the first 5 years and are much smaller in magnitude than those shown in earlier works. None of the simulations produced a nuclear winter effect. We find that the effects on global surface temperatures are not uniform and are concentrated primarily around the highest arctic latitudes, dramatically reducing the global impact on human health and agriculture compared with that reported by earlier studies. Our analysis demonstrates that the probability of significant global cooling from a limited exchange scenario as envisioned in previous studies is highly unlikely, a conclusion supported by examination of natural analogs, such as large forest fires and volcanic eruptions.

Accurately representing flow across the mesoscale to the microscale is a persistent roadblock for completing realistic microscale simulations. The science challenges that must be addressed to coupling at these scales include the following: 1) What is necessary to capture the variability of the mesoscale flow, and how do we avoid generating spurious rolls within the terra incognita between the scales? 2) Which methods effectively couple the mesoscale to the microscale and capture the correct nonstationary features at the microscale? 3) What are the best methods to initialize turbulence at the microscale? 4) What is the best way to handle the surface-layer parameterizations consistently at the mesoscale and the microscale? 5) How do we assess the impact of improvements in each of these aspects and quantify the uncertainty in the simulations? The U.S. Department of Energy Mesoscale-to-Microscale-Coupling project seeks to develop, verify, and validate physical models and modeling techniques that bridge the most important atmospheric scales determining wind plant performance and reliability, which impacts many meteorological applications. The approach begins with choosing case days that are interesting for wind energy for which there are observational data for validation. The team has focused on modeling nonstationary conditions for both flat and complex terrain. This paper describes the approaches taken to answer the science challenges, culminating in recommendations for best approaches for coupled modeling.

Firebrand transport is studied for disc and cylindrical firebrands by modelling their trajectories with a coupled-physics fire model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC. Through HIGRAD/FIRETEC simulations, the size of possible firebrands and travelled distances are analysed to assess spot ignition hazard. Trajectories modelled with and without the assumption that the firebrands’ relative velocities always equal their terminal velocities are. Various models for the flight and combustion of disc- and cylindrical-shaped firebrands are evaluated. Eight simulations are performed with surface fuel fires and four simulations are performed with combined surface and canopy fuels. Firebrand trajectories without terminal velocity are larger than those from models with terminal velocity. Discs travel further than cylinders, as discs are aerodynamically more favourable. Thin discs burning on their faces and tall cylinders burning around their circumference have shorter lifetimes than thin discs burning from their circumference or longer cylinders burning from their ends. Firebrands from canopy fires, with larger size and potential to ignite recipient fuel, travel further than firebrands from surface fires. In the simulations, which included a line fire ignition in homogeneous fuels on flat terrain, the firebrand launching patterns are very heterogeneous, and the trajectories and landing patterns are dominated by the coupled fire–atmosphere behaviour.

Based on energy conservation and detailed heat transfer mechanisms, a simple physical model for fire spread is presented for the limit of one-dimensional steady-state contiguous spread of a line fire in a thermally-thin uniform porous fuel bed. The solution for the fire spread rate is found as an eigenvalue from this model with appropriate boundary conditions through a fourth order Runge-Kutta method. Three experiments on fire spread are compared to the model simulations and good agreement is demonstrated. The comparisons with wind tunnel experiments on white birch fuel beds show that the physics in this model successfully evaluates wind and slope effects on the fire spread rate. The grassland fuel experiments with various fuel characteristics also compare well to the simulations. Limited comparison with data on fire spread in shrubs, obtained in China, also shows good agreement. These comparisons suggest that this model may serve as the basis for an improved operational model.

International audienceFire behaviour data from 240 laboratory fires in high-density live chaparral fuel beds were compared withmodel predictions. Logistic regression was used to develop a model to predict fire spread success in the fuel beds and linearregression was used to predict rate of spread. Predictions from the Rothermel equation and three proposed changes as wellas two physically based models were compared with observed spread rates of spread. Flame length–fireline intensityrelationships were compared with flame length data. Wind was the most important variable related to spread success. Airtemperature, live fuel moisture content, slope angle and fuel bed bulk density were significantly related to spread rate.A flame length–fireline intensity model for Galician shrub fuels was similar to the chaparral data. The Rothermel modelfailed to predict fire spread in nearly all of the fires that spread using default values. Increasing the moisture of extinctionmarginally improved its performance. Modifications proposed by Cohen, Wilson and Catchpole also improvedpredictions. The models successfully predicted fire spread 49 to 69% of the time. Only the physical model predictionsfell within a factor of two of actual rates. Mean bias of most models was close to zero. Physically based models generallyperformed better than empirical models and are recommended for further study

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