ABSTRACT:The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved capability for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency among a number of potential applications. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms (environmental data records), cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications using GLM alone, in combination with the ABI, merged with ground-based sensors, and decision aids augmented by numerical weather prediction model forecasts. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. An international field campaign planned for 2011-2012 will produce concurrent observations from a VHF lightning mapping array, Meteosat multi-band imagery, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) overpasses, and related ground and in-situ lightning and meteorological measurements in the vicinity of Sao Paulo. These data will provide a new comprehensive proxy data set for algorithm and application development.

[1] We report the observation with the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) related to a terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) detected by RHESSI on 26 July 2008. The LMA data explicitly show the TGF was produced during the initial development of a compact intracloud (IC) lightning flash between a negative charge region centered at about 8.5 km above sea level (−22°C temperature level) a higher positive region centered at 13 km, both confined to the convective core of an isolated storm in close proximity to the RHESSI footprint. After the occurrence of an LMA source with a high peak power (26 kW), the initial lightning evolution caused an unusually large IC current moment that became detectable 2 ms after the first LMA source and increased for another 2 ms, during which the burst of gamma-rays was produced. This slowly building current moment was most likely associated with the upward leader progression, which produced an uncommonly large IC charge moment change (+90 C·km) in 3 ms while being punctuated by a sequence of fast discharge. These observations suggest that the leader development may be involved in the TGF production.

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Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the north Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix Theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50 ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., anomalous VHF noise sources) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Even though the two methods are independent of one another, they nevertheless provide remarkably similar results. However, altitude error estimates derived from the two methods differ (the Monte Carlo result being taken as more accurate). Additionally, this study clarifies the mathematical retrieval process. In particular, the mathematical difference between the first-guess linear solution and the Marquardt-iterated solution is rigorously established thereby explaining why Marquardt iterations improve upon the linear solution.

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Convective storm simulations are conducted using varying thermal and wind profile shapes, subject to the constraints of strict conservation of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and hodograph trace. Small and large CAPE regimes and straight and curved hodographs are studied, each with a matrix of systematically varying thermal and wind profile shapes having identical levels of free convection and bulk Richardson numbers favorable to supercell development. Differences in storm intensity and morphology resulting from changes in the profile shapes can be profound, especially in the small CAPE regime, where, for the moderate shears studied here, storms are generally weak except when the buoyancy is concentrated at low levels. In stronger CAPE regimes, less dramatic relative enhancements of storm updraft intensity are found when both the buoyancy and shear are concentrated at low levels. Peak midlevel vertical vorticity correlates roughly with peak updraft speed in the small CAPE regime, but it shows less sensitivity to buoyancy and shear stratification at larger CAPE. Although peak low-level vertical vorticity can be large in either CAPE regime, it is generally larger in the large CAPE regime, where evaporation of rain leads to the formation of stronger surface cold pools, zones of enhanced horizontal shear, and baroclinic production of horizontal vorticity that can be tilted onto the vertical by storm updrafts. The present parameter space study strongly suggests that, while bulk CAPE and shear are important determinants of gross storm morphology and intensity, significant modulation is possible within a given bulk CAPE and shear class by changing only the shapes of the profiles of buoyancy and shear, either alone or in combination.