Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

As of mid-August 2020, Brazil was the country with the second-highest number of cases and deaths by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with large regional and social differences. In this study, using data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, we analyze the spatial patterns of infection and mortality from Covid-19 across small areas of Brazil. We apply spatial autoregressive Bayesian models and estimate the risks of infection and mortality, taking into account age, sex composition of the population and other variables that describe the health situation of the spatial units. We also perform a decomposition analysis to study how age composition impacts the differences in mortality and infection rates across regions. Our results indicate that death and infections are spatially distributed, forming clusters and hotspots, especially in the Northern Amazon, Northeast coast and Southeast of the country. The high mortality risk in the Southeast part of the country, where the major cities are located, can be explained by the high proportion of the elderly in the population. In the less developed areas of the North and Northeast, there are high rates of infection among young adults, people of lower socioeconomic status, and people without access to health care, resulting in more deaths.

BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death in Brazil, accounting for 30% of all deaths. Previous research shows that CVD mortality rates are not uniformly distributed across Brazil and have been changing over time. There is also previous evidence from other countries that economic development and improvements in the educational level have important effects in reducing CVD mortality. OBJECTIVE The goal of this paper is to contribute to this discussion by investigating the relation between CVD mortality and economic development over time and space, measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, in Brazilian micro-regions from 2001 to 2015. METHODS We used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM-DATASUS) from 2001 to 2015. GDP data by micro-region were extracted from the Sistema IBGE de Recuperação Automática (SIDRA). Bivariate maps were used to establish the relationship between CVD mortality and GDP per capita. RESULTS The results show that GDP per capita increased in all micro-regions between 2001 and 2015. The results also suggest a rapid decline in CVD mortality in the South and Southeast micro-regions and a slower decline in the Central-West region. Meanwhile, the less developed North and Northeast regions showed an increase in CVD mortality over time. This spatial heterogeneity over the examined period appears to be associated with access to proper healthcare and strongly related to socioeconomic factors. In Baptista & Queiroz: The relation between cardiovascular mortality and development 1438 http://www.demographic-research.org addition, males have higher mortality rates than females in approximately 72% of micro-regions. CONTRIBUTION This study provides useful clues for policymakers establishing public health planning and effective measures for the prevention of deaths from cardiovascular disease. The reduction of CVD mortality can positively impact GDP growth because it can increase life expectancy and consequently enable people to contribute to the Brazilian economy for a longer time.

No abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death worldwide, causing 30% of deaths in Brazil alone in recent years. However, CVD mortality rates are not uniformly distributed across the country. Brazil is marked by important regional differences resulting from socioeconomic inequality and limited access to health services. Given the spatial distribution of causes and heterogeneity of deaths from cardiovascular disease in Brazil, both at macro and micro levels, the goal of this paper is to investigate how age composition effects and age-specific mortality rates are related to the observed difference in deaths from cardiovascular disease in the adult population (over 30 years of age), by sex, in Brazilian micro-regions from 1996 to 2015. The results suggest there has been a decrease in mortality rates resulting from cardiovascular disease, and that both the effects of age structure and level may have influenced the variation of these deaths in Brazil over the period analyzed. These findings indicate that  the Brazilian epidemiological transition is not uniform across and within regions of the country.

Strengthening the resilience of societies to extreme weather events is an urgent and critical priority around the world. Extreme weather often causes population displacement that compromises human security. Environment-induced displacement is multifaceted because climate extremes, population, and socio-economic conditions, among other factors, converge to influence individuals’ decisions to move. When large-scale, catastrophic floods occur, people tend to move both suddenly and rapidly for survival. Quantifying the patterns and mechanisms of such displacement at global scale is essential to support areas at high risk for climate-induced displacement. Here we present the global distribution of vulnerability to floods by mapping potential flood exposure and observed flood-induced displacement. We found that countries in Africa might be highly vulnerable to floods because they have high flood-induced displacement even at low- to mid-level flood exposure. Our results show that income levels (Gross National Income) substantial impact flood-induced displacement. Moreover, the relationship between income levels and displacement is nonlinear, and this nonlinearity indicates large gaps in flood-induced displacement between high- and low-income countries. We suggest that low-income countries, particularly in Africa, face a high likelihood of flood-induced displacement and need to develop adaptation measures to mitigate the potential for displacement and the associated risks.

As at mid August, 2020, Brazil is the second most affected country by the COVID-19 pandemic, with large regional and social differences. In this study, using data from Brazilian Ministry of Health, we analyze the spatial patterns of infection and mortality from Covid-19 across small areas in Brazil. We apply spatial autoregressive Bayesian models and estimate the risks of infection and mortality, taking into account age and sex composition of the population. We also perform a decomposition analysis to study how age composition impacts the differences in mortality and infection rates across regions. Our results indicate that death and infections are spatially distributed forming clusters and hotspots especially in the Northern Amazon, Northeast coast and Southeast of the country. The high mortality risks in the Southeast part of the country, which harbours the major cities can, be explained by the high proportion of elderly population. In the less developed areas of North and Northeast, there is a combination of high infection among young adults, socioeconomic and health access backwardness that results in more deaths.

ResumoO objetivo principal deste artigo é fazer uma análise exploratória sobre a população de deficientes no Estado de Minas Gerais utilizando duas abordagens mais gerais, quais sejam: espacial e demográfica. Para tanto, foram utilizados os dados das amostras dos Censos Demográficos de 2000 e 2010. Os resultados do censo de 2000 apontaram a existência de 24,5 milhões de brasileiros com algum tipo de deficiência, ou seja, 14,5% da população do país naquele ano. Já no censo de 2010 foram registrados 45,6 milhões de pessoas (23,9%) com alguma das deficiências pesquisadas. Coincidentemente, o Estado de Minas Gerais apresentou algo muito próximo a essa média em ambos os censos. O que se pretende avaliar, então, são os padrões de distribuição espacial e demográfico para os tipos de deficiência propostos pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), por meio do mapeamento coroplético de taxas brutas padronizadas. Espera-se contribuir para o avanço de estudos relacionados à população de deficientes em Minas Gerais, no nível de municípios, pois, sendo um tema relativamente pouco explorado, acredita-se que este mapeamento revelará padrões espaciais pertinentes para o desenvolvimento e aplicação de políticas públicas que visem este segmento, bem como permitirá a elaboração de algumas hipóteses preliminares que poderão ser avaliadas em trabalhos futuros.Palavras-chave: pessoas deficientes; geografia; demografia; distribuição espacial; Minas Gerais. AbstractThe main goal of this article is to make an exploratory analysis on the population of disabled people in the State of Minas Gerais using two general approaches, namely: spatial and demographic. For this, we used data from sample Censuses of 2000 and 2010. The results of the 2000 census showed the presence of 24,5 million Brazilians with some kind of disability, i.e., 14,5% of the population in that year. Already in the 2010 census were registered 45,6 million people (23,9%) with some of the deficiencies studied. Coincidentally, the State of Minas Gerais had something very close to this average in both censuses. What we want to evaluate, then, are the patterns of spatial distribution and demographics for the types of disabilities proposed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), through coropletic mapping of gross rates standardized. Is expected contribute to the advancement of studies related to population of disabled people in Minas Gerais, at the level of