Spatial pattern of COVID-19 deaths and infections in small areas of Brazil

Lima, Everton Emanuel Campos de; Gayawan, Ezra; Baptista, Emerson Augusto; Queiroz, Bernardo Lanza

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0246808

Cited by 38 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Advanced statistical spatio-temporal methods have progressed significantly in the last 15 years particularly with the seminal paper by Rue et al [27] who developed the INLA approach. Similar to our approach, these models have been used successfully in other countries to monitor the spread of SAR-CoV-2 infection at a spatio-temporal level [10,11,41].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They found that densely populated, low-income, and predominantly black neighbourhoods were strongly associated with COVID-19 test positivity. Likewise, in Brazil, Campos de Lima et al [ 10 ] also implemented spatial regression models using INLA and found that COVID-19 infections were spatially distributed, forming clusters and hotspots. Less developed areas with lower socioeconomic status were associated with increased risk of infection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For a national health system, and policy decision making during a pandemic, it is critically important to be aware of such disparities, if they exist. Unsurprisingly, early indications suggest that areas with the greatest socioeconomic deprivation are associated with a higher incidence of COVID-19 cases [ 10 , 11 ] but further investigation is warranted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland

Madden

Teljeur

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Like most countries worldwide, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has adversely affected Ireland. The aim of this study was to (i) investigate the spatio-temporal trend of COVID-19 incidence; (ii) describe mobility trends as measured by aggregated mobile phone records; and (iii) investigate the association between deprivation index, population density and COVID-19 cases while accounting for spatial and temporal correlation. Standardised incidence ratios of cases were calculated and mapped at a high spatial resolution (electoral division level) over time. Trends in the percentage change in mobility compared to a pre-COVID-19 period were plotted to investigate the impact of lockdown restrictions. We implemented a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model (Besag, York and Mollié (BYM)), commonly used for disease mapping, to investigate the association between covariates and the number of cases. There have been three distinct “waves” of COVID-19 cases in Ireland to date. Lockdown restrictions led to a substantial reduction in human movement, particularly during the 1st and 3rd wave. Despite adjustment for population density (incidence ratio (IR) = 1.985 (1.915–2.058)) and the average number of persons per room (IR = 10.411 (5.264–22.533)), we found an association between deprivation index and COVID-19 incidence (IR = 1.210 (CI: 1.077–1.357) for the most deprived quintile compared to the least deprived). There is a large range of spatial heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases in Ireland. The methods presented can be used to explore locally intensive surveillance with the possibility of localised lockdown measures to curb the transmission of infection, while keeping other, low-incidence areas open. Our results suggest that prioritising densely populated deprived areas (that are at increased risk of comorbidities) during vaccination rollout may capture people that are at risk of infection and, potentially, also those at increased risk of hospitalisation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland

Madden

Teljeur

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…Paracatu had the smallest population in this age group, which suggests less possibility of COVID-19 cases, but the opposite was observed. Although all age groups are equally susceptible to contracting the new coronavirus, mortality in individuals over 59 years of age has been shown to be higher in Brazil (35,36). A descriptive cross-sectional study based on secondary data between January 1 and August 20, 2020 in Rondônia, in North Brazil, analyzed 49,804 confirmed COVID-19 cases and showed a greater occurrence of deaths in older age groups and among males (37).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 in medium-sized municipalities in the 14 health macro-regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil

JÚnior

Nascimento

Matiles

et al. 2021

Braz J Med Biol Res

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The present study focused on the scenario of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, from March 2020 to March 2021. We evaluated the evolution of COVID-19 prevalence and death in one municipality from each of the 14 health macro-regions of MG state. Socio-demographic characteristics and variables related to the municipalities were analyzed. The raw dataset used in this study was freely sourced from the website Brasil.io. From the raw dataset, two time series were extracted: the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 and cumulative death counts, and they were compared to the state data using a nowcasting approach. In order to make time series comparisons possible, all data was normalized per 100,000 inhabitants. When analyzing in light of colored wave code interventions initiated in August 2020 in MG, for the majority of the municipalities, there was an absence of clear influence on prevalence and deaths. The national holidays in the first semester of 2020 had a small impact on the COVID-19 prevalence of the municipalities, but the holidays in the second semester of 2020 and beginning of 2021 caused important impacts on COVID-19 prevalence. The low number of ICU beds in some municipalities contributed to the higher number of deaths. The analysis showed here is expected to contribute to the improvement of decision making of the MG government, as it opened a huge possibility to have the total macro-regions and state data analyzed.

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“…Additionally, the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Brazil has not affected the whole population in an equal way. People in the poorest socioeconomic quintile, people living in crowded conditions and Indigenous People had a much higher prevalence of and mortality from COVID-19 [55,56].…”

Section: Brazil's Healthcare Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

The COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy in Brazil—A Case Study

et al. 2021

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Brazil is among the countries which have faced two devastating infection waves of COVID-19 in the past year. Despite the fact the country has one of the world’s leading immunization programs, Brazil only slowly established a national COVID-19 vaccination strategy and campaign. This case study is based on an integrative review of primary and secondary literature sources. Different search strategies on Medline and Google Scholar were performed for the case presentation, for the management and outcome of the COVID-19 outbreak and for the state of the COVID-19 vaccination program. Official documents from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the website of the World Health Organization and pharmaceutical companies were also reviewed. Searches were limited to English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish. This article describes the Brazilian COVID-19 vaccination campaign and the drivers and barriers to its implementation; and evaluates further investigations needed to have a conclusive overview over the constantly evolving situation. Healthcare inequalities, which were widened during the pandemic, a lack of coordination at the federal level, the absence of federal government support for scientific research and the lack of endorsement and commitment to the mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic set the country’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign off to a challenging start. However, Brazil had a well-developed primary care system and national vaccination program prior to the pandemic, which are both important facilitators. At the time of writing, six vaccines are currently available in the country, and the program is advancing. The scientific community needs to continue to investigate the country’s vaccination strategy and its implementation to make sure that maximum effort is undertaken for the health of the Brazilian population.

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Spatial pattern of COVID-19 deaths and infections in small areas of Brazil

Cited by 38 publications

References 31 publications

Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland

Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland

COVID-19 in medium-sized municipalities in the 14 health macro-regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil

The COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy in Brazil—A Case Study

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